2011 ODDS REVIEW

Eleven wins. Twenty-six losses.

  • If this was an academic setting, the 29.7% success rate would equal failure.
  • If this was a batting average, the 29.7% success rate would equal a $10 million contract.
  • When betting fake money on Sprint Cup races, the 29.7% success rate does equal a fake profit of 125 bucks for the year.

Here’s a breakdown on how we arrived where we arrived.

The Chase rules:

Just like 2010, the Chase provided a great opportunity to make fake money. The type of track whittles down logical contenders. So too does the knowledge of what happened during the first runs at these tracks earlier in the year. Then the Chase narrows your focus even more.

Once Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards emerged as the Chase contenders, riding them meant riding to Victory Lane. I won half the Chase races. It was the difference between being up and down for the year.

Jack Roush hates me:

Carl Edwards was at the forefront of the points chase all year. Just because Edwards was consistent doesn’t mean he was worth selecting. I picked Edwards 16 out of 36 possible races. Sixteen times, I lost.

Matt Kenseth had a great year. I never picked a race he won. I did pick Kenseth thirteen times when he lost.

Greg Biffle cost me seven times.

David Ragan won twice for me. He doesn’t work for Roush Fenway Racing anymore.

In unrelated news, I am writing this column at a Ford repair shop.

A new strategy emerges

Fuel duels and tire strategies leveled the playing field for Sprint Cup teams. Guys like Ragan, Brad Keselowski, Paul Menard, Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne won with odds of 50/1 or higher.

Chase drivers win an overwhelming amount of Chase races. The first 26 races of the year are far more random, at least in 2011. The people who diversified their options early in the year and tightened up their options later in the year had the most success. Curious if it’s that way in 2012.

Here’s a break down of the people I picked and how well they did for me. Enjoy the weekend, and insert random catchphrase here.

Tony Stewart: 3 wins, 5 losses
David Ragan: 2 wins, 4 losses
Jimmie Johnson: 2 wins, 12 losses
Jeff Gordon: 1 win, 10 losses
Kyle Busch: 1 win, 3 losses
Denny Hamlin: 1 win, 7 losses
Kasey Kahne: 1 win, 1 loss
Carl Edwards: 0 wins, 16 losses
Matt Kenseth: 0 wins, 13 losses
Kurt Busch: 0 wins, 11 losses
Brad Keselowski: 0 wins, 10 losses
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 0 wins, 8 losses
Greg Biffle: 0 wins, 7 losses
Kevin Harvick: 0 wins, 5 losses
AJ Allmendinger: 0 wins, 4 losses
Clint Bowyer: 0 wins, 3 losses
Paul Menard: 0 wins, 2 losses
Ryan Newman: 0 wins, 2 losses
David Reutimann: 0 wins, 1 loss
Marcos Ambrose: 0 wins, 1 loss
Mart Martin: 0 wins, 1 loss
Trevor Bayne: 0 wins, 1 loss
Jeff Burton: 0 wins, 1 loss