2013 AARON’S 499 ODDS

NASCAR’s biggest track is NASCAR’s biggest crapshoot. 

Talladega is known for the unknown. Big speed. Bigger packs. The biggest wrecks in racing. All of this makes picking Sunday’s Aaron’s 499 nearly impossible. Check this out:

The two favorites are 10/1. Favorites all season have been 7/1 or less. Sure, these numbers are small. But it’s a 30 percent discrepancy, which is a big number in any sport. 
Jimmie Johnson has six Sprint Cup titles and has never been below 10/1 all season. Sunday, Johnson is 12/1. 
Kasey Kahne has turned into a complete driver and excelled anywhere he has driven a car. He’s 12/1.
Numbers this condensed mean anyone can win. Down a fake 146 dollars after some dreadful picks last week, here are my fake picks for the sake of entertainment and entertainment alone. 
10 fake dollars on Clint Bowyer at 12/1
Bowyer has the best average finish among active drivers over last five years and has contended for wins in the last month without closing.  
10 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 12/1 
NASCAR’s Stone Cold has the highest average among active drivers at Talladega, two wins at the track and zero wins this year. 
10 fake dollars on Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 12/1
Talladega would riot if the #88 wins. Plus Earnhardt  Jr. led the most laps of any driver here in the last five years. 
10 fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 12/1
Jimmie Johnson is 12/1, won Daytona and has a win here. Plus, it’s Jimmie Johnson at 12/1. 
8 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 15/1
Biffle has a steady track record, a slow start and nice numbers.
2 fake dollars on Aric Almirola at 50/1
Almirola has quietly put together a solid season, finds himself at one of this best tracks and is 50/1. Plus I have two fake dollars.
Anyone who claims to know what will happen here is either much smarter than me or completely clueless. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy Sunday, and insert random catchphrase here. 

For the year:

  • Two wins
  • Eight losses
  • Down 145 fake dollars
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 20/1
Martin Truex Jr 25/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 35/1
Danica Patrick 35/1
Juan Montoya 35/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Paul Menard 40/1
Michael Waltrip 40/1
Marcos Ambrose 50/1
Aric Almirola 50/1
Trevor Bayne 75/1
Elliott Sadler 75/1
Regan Smith 75/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1