The 2013 Sprint Cup season isn’t even one-third of the way complete, but odds makers clearly have a Fave Four. 

Here’s how a sizeable shift in the numbers will influence how you should watch Saturday’s Southern 500.

Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne are all 8/1 or lower. Denny Hamlin, who hasn’t run in a month is 8/1, but he at least has the best average finish among active drivers here.
Kahne is 12th among active drivers here over the last five years. Jimmie Johnson is 9th. Matt Kenseth is 8th. Past history doesn’t matter. Current history does. And with this Fave Four winning 7 of 10 Sprint Cup races, odds makers are begging you to find the next David Ragan. 
Down a fake 196 dollars after Ragan’s win, here are my picks for the sake of entertainment and entertainment alone. 
20 fake dollars on Kyle Busch at 5/1
Of the Fave Four, Busch has led the most laps of any driver here over the last five years. He 
10 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 12/1
Stone Cold wins at famous tracks and has the second best finish among active drivers here over the last five years. The only missing element is a win. 
10 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 12/1
Has any big name driver had a quieter 2013 than Biffle? The man led nearly 80 laps here last year. 
4 fake dollars on Tony Stewart at 25/1
Whopper Man has had a terrible 2013 season. Stewart finishes well here but has not won here in more than half a decade. We’re getting close to summer, which is Stewart Season.
3 fake dollars on Aric Almirola and Ryan Newman at 100/1
Almirola might be the best driver to not win a race on tour right now and quietly is piecing together a solid season. Ryan Newman has a good track record is would honk off NASCAR with a win. Plus I’m desperate.
Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy Saturday night, and insert random catchphrase here.
For the season
  • Two wins
  • Nine losses
  • Down 195 fake dollars
Kyle Busch 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Martin Truex Jr 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1
Tony Stewart 25/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Kurt Busch 50/1
Mark Martin 50/1
Ricky Stenhouse 50/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Juan Montoya 75/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1