Never has been at level ground felt so fulfilling.


After three straight weeks of losing, Matt Kenseth’s birthday victory brought me back to break even for the 2013 Sprint Cup season. Now comes the hard part.

 
Bristol is a track Kyle Busch owns, with five wins in sixteen career starts. I have put all of my fake money on him in past events. Yet this year seems different.
 
For having the reputation of stability, Joe Gibbs Racing just seems off. Engine problems plagued them at Daytona. Denny Hamlin’s fine, though unjust, brought with it some baggage. And Kyle Busch has continued to seem somewhat wayward.  Couple that with Hendrick Motorsports have three drivers in average finish here over the last five years, and logic suggests moving in another direction.
 
Unfortunatley, math does not. Now even for the year, here are fake picks for the sake of entertainment and entertainment alone.
 
15 fake dollars on Kyle Busch at 7/1
Jimmie Johnson has the third best average finish at this track over the last five years and is the favorite. That stuns me. This is the best Busch number in two years. I have to take it; therefore, I have to lose.
 
15 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 7/1
Not picking a Hendrick driver makes my skin crawl. But this number just looks too good.
 
10 fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 12/1
Kenseth has the second best average finish here in the last five years and fourth overall among active drivers. Toyota cars owned this track last year. Surely this has to go wrong.
 
6  fake dollars on Clint Bowyer at 20/1
Bowyer has had a quiet start to the 2013 Sprint Cup season. Michael Waltrip Racing cars fielded three drivers fifth or better at Bristol last year. Only Bowyer contended for the Sprint Cup.
 
4 fake dollars on Martin Truex Jr. at 25/1
It’s been six years since Chowder Man won a Sprint Cup race. I can’t believe I typed that last sentence either. I simply can’t pull the pin on Brian Vickers; so, let’s see if this if finally the day our reverse Undertaker Wrestlemania streak ends.
 
Here's what The Spread thinks. Enjoy Bristol, St. Patrick's Day and the random catchphrase inserted here.
 
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Denny Hamlin 7/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Brad Keselowski 7/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Martin Truex Jr 25/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Joey Logano 40/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Juan Montoya 60/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Ricky Stenhouse 60/1
Paul Menard 75/1
Kurt Busch 75/1
Marcos Ambrose 75/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 300/1
Danica Patrick 500/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1