2013 STP GAS BOOSTER 500 ODDS

Sunday is going to be crazy.

 
After the mayhem at Auto Club Speedway, the passive aggressive tweets, the radio interviews, the sit down apologies and the first bye week of the 2013 Sprint Cup season, NASCAR returns to the shortest track on the schedule. What could possibly go wrong?

 
This race will impact fake wagering in three ways. For starters, Joey Logano is off my board for the rest of 2013. Nobody is going to let Logano win after his reaction and reaction to his reaction. You can even spell toxic L-O-G-A-N-O now. 
 
For this week, Tony Stewart is off the board. Stewart’s antics have to be a distraction, and there are too many opportunities for Stewart to find Logano or anyone else who draws his ire at a track that easily draws ire.
 
All of this leaves Jimmie Johnson as a 4/1 favorite. Sadly, he is off my board until these numbers get better. Johnson has seven wins here. So does Jeff Gordon who sits at 12/1. As likely as it might be for Johnson to win Sunday, it’s not a 25-percent chance of victory; therefore, he’s done.
 
So too are my winning ways after that mess from two weeks ago.  Down 100 fake dollars, here are my picks for the sake of entertainment alone. 
 
18 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 6/1
The defending Sprint Cup champion loves short tracks and has the third best average finishing position among active drivers. The one thing this Blue Deuce hasn’t done is win this year. That can easily change Sunday.
10 fake dollars on Jeff Gordon at 12/1
Gordon has led more than 1,000 laps here in the last five years and three times better odds than Jimmie Johnson. 
8 fake dollars on Clint Bowyer at 15/1
Only Gordon and Jimmie Johnson led more laps here last year than Bowyer, who seems overdue for a breakout finish. 

8 fake dollars on Mark Martin at 15/1
Martin is driving Denny Hamlin’s car which has four wins at Martinsville. Martin has the fifth best average finish among active drivers at this track. It would be quite the story.
6 fake dollars on Ryan Newman at 25/1
The dude won this race last year, and I only have six fake dollars left. 
 
Sunday is going to be crazy. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the race, and insert random catchphrase here.
For the season:
  • One win
  • Five losses
  • Down 100 fake dollars
Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Brad Keselowski 6/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Mark Martin 15/1
Clint Bowyer 15/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Joey Logano 25/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Martin Truex Jr 30/1
Brian Vickers 40/1
Kurt Busch 50/1
Ricky Stenhouse 50/1
Jeff Burton 50/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Aric Almirola 60/1
Juan Montoya 75/1
Marcos Ambrose 75/1
Paul Menard 75/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Regan Smith 300/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1