AUTO CLUB 500 ODDS

Wow, did I screw up at Daytona.

If anyone doubted this pick column concept was for the sake of fun and merriment, just look at my Daytona debacle from last week.

In hindsight, I should have stayed away from any driver associated with Whopper Man,  jumped off Harvick’s lower odds and put my money on Clint Bowyer (same driver/better money maker if he won) and Jamie McMurrary, whom I will now dub Captain Restrictor Plate.

What could have been was a $300 payout and $250 in profit. What did happen was a reality I should get used to…I’m down $50 and in need of a win this week at Auto Club Speedway.

The good news is I have a plan. The bad news is I have no clue if the plan has a pothole that would make Daytona look like a blip.


My journalism fedora got a workout.  Did you know Roush Fenway has won this race the last four years? I didn’t either. Did you see how well Roush cars (even David Ragan) ran during the 500 mile aggregate at Daytona? Did you see Richard Petty Motorsports (even Elliott Sadler) run in the 500? I was surprised, too.

Then look at the odds. Tons of love for people who sputtered last week. And while it wouldn’t floor me to see Jimmie Johnson or Kyle Busch get their act together, the math doesn’t give me the value I need to make up for my mess last week. Mmmm, a desperation sammich.

Then you consider the extra mayo to that sammich. We enter a cookie cutter track where Roush drivers have made a killing in recent years. I’ve heard people say, “Oh, no you didn’t?” Yes I did. Jack Roush, you bastion of bliss, I’m riding your train this week. Editor’s Note: We are so sorry to Roush Fenway fans…he’s just screwed your weekend.

$15 on Greg Biffle at 12/1.
Biffle finished fourth hear last year. Had drivers not lost their mind on the restarts and NASCAR not changed rules just because, he might be your Daytona 500 champion. At some point Biffle has to win. Why not Sunday, especially with those numbers?
 
$15 on Carl Edwards at 12/1.
Captain Frisbee has won at the track. What I like more, Edwards has never finished outside the top ten at this place in the box we call the COT. Plus he’s going to be a dad soon, and I like the new parent vibe/story angle. The NASCAR Mafia might agree. You never know when some mysterious debris appears.

$10 on Matt Kenseth at 15/1.
He won this race last year, then saw his season fall apart. But, I like trends, and Kenseth has trended well here. Honestly, I like him least of the three main Roush drivers, but when you drink Kool-Aid, you even have to chug some crappy flavors. Kenseth is my Watermelon.



$10 on David Ragan.

Holy flaming goat cheese, I just put fake money on David Ragan. But didn’t Ragan hang tough on the biggest stage in NASCAR? Ragan’s finishes have also trended in the right direction at this track. At 50/1, why not have some continuity in a long shot? Editor’s note…because you’ll lose fake money. #Farkas #Dope on our bad-@$% Twitter feed.

If Edwards of Biffle wins, I make $180 on a $50 bet for a profit of $130. Kenseth would make me $150 on a $50. Ragan gives me a three day weekend somewhere without snow.  Enjoy the race, and insert random catchphrase here.

Auto Club 500 odds, courtesy www.thespread.com.

Jimmie Johnson 9/2    
Mark Martin 8/1    
Jeff Gordon 8/1    
Kyle Busch 8/1    
Greg Biffle 12/1    
Carl Edwards 12/1    
Kurt Busch 12/1    
Denny Hamlin 12/1    
Tony Stewart 12/1    
Kasey Kahne 15/1    
Matt Kenseth 15/1    
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/1    
Jeff Burton 25/1    
Brian Vickers 25/1    
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1    
Kevin Harvick 25/1    
Clint Bowyer 25/1    
David Ragan 50/1    
Ryan Newman 50/1    
Joey Logano 50/1    
Martin Truex Jr 60/1    
Jamie McMurray 60/1    
David Reutimann 60/1    
Elliott Sadler 100/1    
AJ Allmendinger 100/1    
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1    
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1    
Brad Keselowski 100/1    
Scott Speed 100/1    
Casey Mears 100/1    
Paul Menard 100/1    
Bobby Labonte 100/1    
Regan Smith 100/1    
Marcos Ambrose 100/1