Can Joe Gibbs Racing Beat Vegas?



Who would think one of the most moral men in NASCAR could develop a way to beat Vegas without even intentionally trying to do so?

Joe Gibbs is the nice uncle of NASCAR, the type of person who surprises you with the depth of a Facebook post. So how could this  devout Christian find a way to beat Vegas? It’s as simple as #20 and #18.

Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch have 11 wins in the 28 starts this 2013 Sprint Cup season. Earlier in the year, Kenseth wasn’t a known commodity and was getting double digit odds to win.  Busch was a bit more polarizing, but people betting real and fake money could find him at 10/1 on occasion.

Most people who bet on NASCAR can’t read minds and may have missed the early arrival of the Team Gibbs Express. But there are eight races left this year. The race favorite Sunday is….Jimmie Johnson at 7/2. Both Busch and Kenseth are 9/2.  Let’s assume Busch are at 9/2 the rest of the 2013 Sprint Cup season. If you bet 50 fake dollars per race on each, you would win between 100-110 fake dollars. If Busch and Kenseth win four of the final eight races, you would be up fake money.

This sounds impossible under most circumstances. But consider the following:

  • Busch and Harvick have won 40% of all races this year.
  • The two have won nearly 50% of races at 1.5 mile tracks, which dominate the Chase field.
  • Five of the last seven race winners have been named Busch and Harvick.
  • Logic suggests this is a huge challenge. The math doesn’t look so scary.


NASCAR fans aren’t looking at most circumstances. They are looking at an historic run. And if the two keep this up over the final eight races, not only will fans have one really fascinating Chase finish, but Vegas oddsmakers might find themselves with quite the conundrum.