THE CASE FOR DENNY HAMLIN
Ah, the angst! You would think by the way some are writing it up, Denny Hamlin’s done for the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship, and the trophy engravers are already at work on preparing Jimmie Johnson’s fifth title in as many years.
Not so fast! A good argument, no, several good arguments can be made that Johnson’s “Drive For Five” has hit debris. Consider...
It’s still Denny’s lead to lose. Yes, a 15 point is not a 58 point lead, and it’s not even a 33-point-lead, but it’s still a lead. In order to win the title, Johnson and third place Kevin Harvick still have to catch Hamlin, and that will be no small order. Why?
On the whole, Hamlin has been superior. Let’s not forget who picked off drivers like fish in a barrel Sunday, before the Kobalt Tools 500 became a fuel mileage affair. In fact, you throw out the fluky finish at Talladega, and Hamlin has been consistently better than his challengers. Over the last ten races, Hamlin has an average finish of 5.9, better than Johnson’s 6.3, or Harvick’s 6.4. Harvick leaps past Hamlin over the last five races, but DH is still better than Johnson, and Hamlin has a 46 point advantage over the third place challenger.
That lead Hamlin has over Harvick has to do with another reason he has the edge: to win the Chase, you must have wins in the Chase. While he’s had a bobble or two, Hamlin has made up the difference by closing the deal. Harvick has not won in the Chase, Johnson has a single win at Dover, while Hamlin has won twice, and could very conceivably win a third this Sunday.
Why? Hamlin has the Homestead advantage. While Harvick has a slightly better average finish at Homestead (9.9 to 10.6), Hamlin has accomplished what Happy has not- win a race at the Florida track. Care to guess which Chase track Jimmie has never won at? Ding, ding, ding! If you said Homestead-Miami, you’re a winner! Hamlin comes in as the defending Homestead race champion.
Granted, it’s not hard to understand why fans and talking heads are jumping on the Jimmie Johnson bandwagon after the events at Phoenix. The defending champion is crowing like Foghorn Leghorn and Hamlin looks lower than the price of turkey the day after Thanksgiving. There’s the question of the hour: can Denny Hamlin do what many of the greats do under pressure, develop a short memory, and leave Phoenix in Phoenix? So far this season, the young veteran for Joe Gibbs Racing has shown the ability to bounce back. Now, he just needs to do it one more time.
I wouldn’t bet against it. It’s been one historic Chase so far, and it just may be possible that the kid from Virginia is etching his name into a piece of it.
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***And yes he is the defending champion. But let's be honest he has not run like a champion this year.***
SAY WHAT?
Who has the most Top 5s this entire year coming into Homestead? That's right - it's Jimmie Johnson. Plus six wins. That isn't running like a champion this year?
Seriously, bringing in average finish @ Homestead isn't exactly comparing apples to apples. It's more like apples to (anything else)...
Hamlin has ALWAYS had to run hard @ Homestead whereas Jimmy has only had to run "well enough" over the past 4 years. One of the benefits of taking a big lead to the final race.
The pressure is more on DH than JJ or KH for this race because he's leading but by the skin of his teeth.
On a different direction, it's so nice that JGR has "quality" drivers. I seriously think the most mature is Joey Lagano after the temper tantrums I've seen from Denny and Kyle this year... And to think Joe Gibbs wouldn't put up with primadonnas on the football field...
True- and for Denny, it's not different than any other year. He WILL need to run a good race to hold off JJ and Mr. Happy. What's different, according to Chad K. himself, is Jimmie's never had to run this hard before. What's more HMS isn't quite the beast they've been in the past. In my mind, Hamlin just needs to keep doing what he's doing, Harvick needs to go balls out (and I think he can excel in that position), and Jimmie, well, he's got a little catching up to do (something he's also good at).
As for prima donnas, Gibbs has been dealing with those since the dawn of man. What do you think Theismann and Riggo were?
Why is it that the so called pundits have to explain to me who will win the race and why? How come you can't sit back and enjoy the racing. Whoever wins will win and then all you experts can come out of the closet and explain why. Enjoy the racing and stop the predictions.
Oh, but I do enjoy the racing- apparently more than most. What would be the fun in doing what you propose? Did I call myself an expert? Nah, don't think so. Who do YOU think will win? That's what I want to know.
If you're a Jimmie fan, point well taken. He's a pro with his guys, whomever he has. Otherwise (and I'm not denying Hamlin coud mature some more) doesn't make himself look bad, but it seems like half the field whines about one thing or another.
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While I very much enjoy the story from Chad the Mouse that Jimmie has never had to run hard at Miami, he has always just had to coast to win the championship and that this is somehow a reason why he has the advantage at Miami.
And yes he is the defending champion. But let's be honest he has not run like a champion this year. Harvick lead the point most of the season. Jimmie of course, as usual, shot to the top at the start of the chase but in the end Harvick and Hamlin have run far better than JJ throughout the chase. JJ has had major pit crew problems and made the controversial decision to steal Gordon's crew.
The facts are we have never seen JJ run hard at Miami. Hamlin has always run hard and had great results. Maybe JJ runs hard and leads all the laps and takes this in a walk. But logic says when you have never run a track balls out, behind in the points. That when you do finally attempt you are more open to a mistake that can cost you the championship.
In the end...JJ is bad for business. His 4 straight has killed revenue, attendance and he is just nlt a merchandiser. And he has no real personality. I am not saying Harvick or Hamlin are but they offer a change. If JJ pulls this off he will be the luckiest most unchampionlike champion in years. He has not shown championship caliber all year and if he completes the drive for 5...NASCAR is in deep trouble business wise.