anonymous

Anonymous

CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITY TABLE: JOHNSON PASSES STEWART AND MARTIN

Posted 09/29/09 at 5:00 AM PDT by Dale Watermill | Email This |

 
With the Dover race in the record books, just eight races remain until the 2009 Sprint Cup champion is crowned. Let’s take a look at the updated championship probability table, which includes some interesting side notes.
 
1) The big winner at Dover was Jimmie Johnson, who nearly doubled his chance of winning the Chase.
 
2) Mark Martin's second-place finish kept him in second place on this table, but his percentage moved up a good chunk, from 18 to 23.


3) Tony Stewart's ninth-place finish dropped him from first to third here, down to 15 percent, which means he is half as likely to win the title as Johnson. The key lesson here is that top fives and wins will be necessary to win this year's Chase, not just top 10s. Notice that Stewart is now closer in points to 12th-place Kasey Kahne than he is to points leader Mark Martin.

4) The big loser was Denny Hamlin, who finished 2 laps down in 22nd. That's never going to get the job done.

5) Carl Edwards joins Kasey Kahne in the dreaded "less than one percent so I had to add another decimal place" category.

6) Johnson and Martin combine for 52 percent of the championship possibilities. If you include Stewart and Jeff Gordon, that's a 79 percent chance of the title going to somebody in the Hendrick stable.

(All Left Turns contributor Dale Watermill is the creator of the Watermill Score and edits the racing statistics blog 36 Races. E-mail him at 36races@gmail.com.)

Related links:
Menard strengthens FLOPPER lead
Updated championship probability table: Martin closes in on Stewart
Winning in NASCAR is like counting cards
Chase bonus points are meaningless
Jimmie Johnson has most points at Chase tracks this season
Numbers say Cup is Stewart's to lose
The Watermill Score: How to win a Sprint Cup title
Replacing crew chiefs has not helped Dale Earnhardt Jr.
 

0 Comments

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><blockquote></blockquote>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Pairs of<blockquote> tags will be styled as a block that indicates a quotation.

More information about formatting options

Featured Stories
 
LOL RACE PICS: FOR THE SON OF MONTOYALOL RACE PICS: FOR THE SON OF MONTOYA
//MORE


149 views

 
RACING FOR THE LOVE OF THE SPORTRACING FOR THE LOVE OF THE SPORT
//MORE


338 views

 
DRIVERS FIND CROSSOVER SUCCESS ON THE POP CHARTSDRIVERS FIND CROSSOVER SUCCESS ON THE POP CHARTS
//MORE


413 views

 
NIGHT RACING VERSUS DAY RACINGNIGHT RACING VERSUS DAY RACING
//MORE


474 views

 
JOHNSON CRASHES AT BRISTOLJOHNSON CRASHES AT BRISTOL
//MORE


547 views

 

Hot Links 

Power rankings (SI.com)  
Reality show to air on BET (AP)  

Hot Links 

SI.com
LOL race pics
The NASCAR Insiders
MoonDog Sports
Just a Guy Thing
Men's Guide
Funny Stuff
Funny Videos
MMA News
Shocking Videos
Movie Reviews
Modern Man
Money Tips
MANVITE 
Time Wasters
Dave and Thomas
Check out our NASCAR crashes
Technorati Profile
Add to Technorati Favorites

Top Forum Topics
Who is your pick to with the AC500?

1346 views | 0 replies in the last hour

replies
Are you a big Kasey Kahne fan?

1549 views | 0 replies in the last hour

replies
Day One: Torn Up Race Cars

1530 views | 0 replies in the last hour

replies
2010 NASCAR Season

1778 views | 0 replies in the last hour

replies