Blogger Dale Watermill of 36 races reports that, statistically speaking, Kyle Busch stands just a 23 percent chance of making the 12-driver Chase field with six races to go. Watermill’s predictions are based on the assumption that none of the drivers who are attempting to make the Chase are about to run their six best or six worst races of the year. Don’t worry. I won’t kill your Kyle Busch Sucks Boner with more mathematical mumbo jumbo. Here are the highlights of Watermill’s latest calculations:

  • Tony Stewart (100 percent) is a lock to make the Chase; pretty much so are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards
  • Juan Pablo Montoya (93 percent) has a better chance of making the Chase than Mark Martin (78 percent)
  • Among those in the top 12, Matt Kenseth (68 percent) is in the most precarious position
  • David Reutimann (26 percent) is ahead of Busch on the outside of the bubble
  • Elliott Sadler, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick all have been eliminated

View Watermill’s probability table below:

Chase qualifying probabilities for every driver (36 Races)