Hello drawing board. I’ve been missing you. And like that stupid song on the radio, I need you now.

After making fun of people who bet on all-star races, I bet on the Sprint Cup All Star-Race, stunningly lost (Jimmie Johnson got hosed, and I’m bitter) and now sit down a fake $350 as I bet every Sprint Cup race this year.

This is why I sit back in front of the drawing board. Or more of a spreadsheet.   When the season began, we all made predictions about what we thought would happen. Twelve races into the season, I defer to the great Denny Green who said, “We are who we thought they were.”

Below is a list of drivers and their current Sprint Cup points ranking, how they’re doing in 2010, how they did in the first twelve races of 2009 and the difference.
 
2010 Ranking  Driver                2010 Points    2009    Difference       
1                       Kevin Harvick    1768              1149     619        
12                     Martin Truex Jr.  1434              1238    196        
18                     Joey Logano        1332             1145    187        
23                     Paul Menard        1217             1033    184        
3                       Matt Kenseth       1642             1460    182        
17                     Jamie McMurray   1346            1168    178        
16                     Dale Earnhardt Jr.  1391            1225    166        
2                       Kyle Busch            1699            1540    159        
22                     David Ragan          1227            1089    138        
8                       Jeff Burton             1569            1472    97        
15                    Clint Bowyer           1392            1319    79        
25                     AJ Allmendinger     1202            1126    76        
34                     Robby Gordon         899             967    68        
10                    Carl Edwards           1487           1431    56        
11                    Mark Martin            1475            1428    47        
4                      Jimmie Johnson        1637            1594    43        
5                      Denny Hamlin          1618            1575    43        
7                      Greg Biffle               1581            1448    33        
19                    Juan Pablo Montoya 1322          1397    -75       
9                      Kurt Busch               1531          1607    -76       
29                    Elliott Sadler             1050          1129    -79       
30                   Sam Hornish Jr.         1013        1113    -100       
21                   Kasey Kahne             1237       1351    -114       
6                     Jeff Gordon                1605       1722    -117       
13                   Ryan Newman           1404       1538    -134       
28                   Marcos Ambrose       1068       1216    -148       
20                   David Reutimann          1262    1422    -160       
33                   Bobby Labonte              945    1134    -189       
14                  Tony Stewart                 1397    1678    -281       
                    
Joe Gibbs has something figured out:

Joey Logano is developing; Kyle Busch’s kind of sort of Zen vibe yielded progress; Denny Hamlin is his consistent self. This is good for potential fake wagering, but it also makes me hold my horses on all this talk of Hamlin taking Jimmie Johnson’s throne in 2010. Hamlin has had great success early before; let’s see if he sustains it.

Richard Childress is back:

Four cars. Zero chasers in 2009. Casey Mears gets tossed aside and suddenly the mojo returns. In 2010, all three Childress cars improved. Jeff Burton would be in the Chase. Kevin Harvick is lapping everyone on improvement and apparently should be in a contract year every season. His progress from 2009 to 2010 triples anyone else, and the dude hasn’t even won a race. That that Penzoil.

I’m an idiot:

I loved me some Tony Stewart. Whopper Man has given us a dud sandwich. Ryan Newman hasn’t helped much either. I also predicted someone from Michael Waltrip Racing would make the Chase. Let’s hope Martin Truex Jr. bails me out of that mess. Marcos Amrbose and David Reutimann each have taken triple digits steps in the wrong direction, with the third and fourth worst differentials of drivers. Does Napa know how this happened? (Editor’s Note: We will punch Dan in the arm for you; that pun was more dreadful than most MLW 2010 performances.)  
 

So how does all of this content impact my picks?  I need to pick people with proven 2010 results. Random money on an MWL driver who hasn’t won seems like wasted money.  Fake cash on people who have delivered and are delivering makes  more sense. With that in mind, here are quick picks for Charlotte, along with odds from The Spread. Enjoy the long weekend, and insert random catchphrase here.

My picks:
$30 on Jimmie Johnson at 4/1
$20 on Kyle Busch at 7/1

Your odds:
Jimmie Johnson 4/1    
Kyle Busch 7/1    
Denny Hamlin 9/1    
Kurt Busch 9/1    
Jeff Gordon 9/1    
Kevin Harvick 15/1    
Mark Martin 15/1    
Kasey Kahne 15/1    
Jeff Burton 18/1    
Tony Stewart 18/1    
Juan Pablo Montoya 20/1    
Joey Logano 20/1    
Greg Biffle 20/1    
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1    
Carl Edwards 20/1    
Matt Kenseth 20/1    
Jamie McMurray 25/1    
Clint Bowyer 30/1    
Martin Truex Jr 30/1    
Brad Keselowski 35/1    
Ryan Newman 35/1    
David Reutimann 35/1   
Field 20/1