Posted 05/27/11 at 6:13 AM PDT by Dan_Farkas |
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It's time to celebrate the people who allow us to enjoy the start of summer. What better way than to watch 600 miles of people tuning left while having copious amounts of meat in your hand? Actually, this video.
Down a mere 60 fake dollars after winning with David Ragan last week, The Coca Cola 600 is one of the three toughest races to predict all year. It all has to do with the marathon element that makes Sunday night so intriguing.
1. Weather can become an issue This race can last more than four hours. It's the beginning of summer in an area known for pop up thunderstorms. The forecast calls for a high of 86 with a 20% chance of rain. I know weather forecasters struggle predicting weather 72 hours out; so, even though the race is 600 miles, you cant DQ a Gibbs car because it may take 500 miles for their engine to explode, and the race may end 350 miles in.
2. Changing conditions Racing from day into night opens up a whole bag of worms. This day into night race also happens on a fast track. Kurt Busch was OK in daylight last year and unstoppable when the lights went down. I don't know how to predict this either.
3. Strategy, strategy, strategy Two tires or four. When do you make major adjustments? Fuel mileage. We know engines are going to blow. We know tempers will flare. We know tires will get cut. But we don't know when. As a result, there will be ten different drivers with ten different plans during the final ten laps. Carl Edwards won't have it so easy...especially when you see my picks.
20 fake dollars on Carl Edwards at 20/1
Kurt Busch had the best car last year and swept. Carl Edwards had the best car last week and won. Granted, he wrecked that car celebrating. But it seems like Roush Fenway has the best engine package. This is an engine track.
15 fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 7/1
Old "Five Time" has six wins and is 7/1 at Charlotte. That's symmetry.
10 fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 10/1
See Carl Edwards engine comment and better odds. I hate myself for not taking him 20/1 twice this year.
5 fake dollars on David Ragan at 75/1
Drivers have earned their first career victory at this track before. Plus Ragan was nice to me last week. Not to mention, it just seems like the right time for him, like he's turned a corner (turning left of course.)
Be American. Enjoy your brat. Enjoy your freedom. And please thank someone who helps protect that freedom for us or their family members who sacrifice while their loved ones are away. Here's what The Spread thinks, and insert random catchphrase here.