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This is one of the most idiotic attempts to use statistics and probability to determine an outcome. The premise is false to begin with. How many chase drivers had DNF's or poor results do to a crash, or some other failure through no fault of their own? Montoya was points racing - he wasn't running hot in every race because he took advantage of the points system.
What a mess. Why did you waste your time with such a meaningless analysis? And calling it an "analysis" is being generous.
Shawn Baker