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Last time they raced at Talladega, Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, Kahne and Martin all had "issues." Martin finished last. How do you factor that into your predictions for the Chase? One of the Chasers finishing last with another one winning is not "improbable." Does JJ's 89% chance of winning the Chase include the possiblity of him finishing last this week? (For the record, I hope he does not.)