FEDEX 400 ODDS

Well that was fast.

The 2012 Sprint Cup season is entering is second trimester with this week’s FedEx 400. And while we shouldn’t expect our favorite driver to develop a baby bump any time soon, we should expect the following trends to develop for the rest of this season.

The Trevor Bayne Effect Is Gone

When Ryan Newman is the biggest upset of the year, the difference between contenders and Dave Blaney is clear. There’s no need for crazy upset picks the rest of the season. Sorry Paul Menard.

The 2012 Chase Will Be Awesome
Biffle, Kenseth, Hamlin, Johnson, Harvick, Busch, Stewart, Keselowski. That’s eight drivers with a chance to win the title. If Earnhardt Jr. wins a race, that’s nine. If Carl Edwards gets out of his funk, that’s ten. If Kasey Kahne gets in the Chase, that’s eleven. If I start buying Martin Truex, that’s twelve. That’s surreal and just what NASCAR needs.

The 2012 Breakout Star Is Nobody
So much for all those AJ Allmendinger predictions. Joey Logano’s must get it done season isn’t getting it done. Paul Menard led twelve laps all year. The next step is too tall this year.

With these lessons learned, here are quick picks with me up a fake 355 dollars after Kasey Kahne’s win in Charlotte.

Twenty fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 5/1

Captain Lowe’s has three wins in his last five starts here. Johnson also has led 1,433 laps here over the last five years. That’s 900 more laps than anyone else.

Seventenn fake dollars on Kyle Busch at 6/1

This isn’t Bristol. But small tracks suit Busch well, and he does have two wins here.

Thirteen fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 8/1

In his last ten races at Dover, Kenseth has finished sixth or worse twice. Or to be positive, eight finishes of fifth or better.

The season is flying by; let’s hope any of these three fly by the competition Sunday afternoon. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the race, and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Brad Keselowski 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1
Martin Truex Jr 25/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Kurt Busch 50/1
Marcos Ambrose 60/1
Joey Logano 60/1
Jeff Burton 60/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Juan Montoya 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Regan Smith 300/1
David Gilliland 300/1
Bobby Labonte 300/1
David Ragan 300/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1