This is the toughest column to write all year.

Fifty fake dollars on Kyle Busch at 5/1.

I could be done right now, go outside and start mulching my yard. Busch owns Bristol. But there are three reasons to wonder if the most obvious move of the year is really so obvious.

1. Busch’s odds went up:

Busch was 4/1 and 3/1 in some places for the Bristol night race. Everyone on the planet knows most real and fake money will go his way. If oddsmakers give me a better chance to make more fake currency, that makes me think I need to run in the other direction.

2. Busch is Busch:

Ask Jimmie Johnson what it feels like when everyone gangs up against you? Busch is special at Bristol. Even he can’t win there when 42 other drivers have a giant target on his car.

3. Busch has real competition:

Denny Hamlin races well on these tracks and won at Phoenix. Brad Keselowski is using his Nationwide experience to excel. Plus Jeff Gordon is still around, and I hear Tony Stewart still remembers how to race after Darian Grubb left.

Yes, the number of competitive teams is down, too much if you ask me. But, the teams at the top are close. Real close. And since they’ll be really close at Bristol, it’s hard to put all my support on one person, especially after Whopper Man hosed me last week in Vegas. So here are the fake picks for the sake of entertainment adding more disclaimer blah blah blah….

  • 20 on Kyle Busch at 5/1
  • 10 fake dollars on Denny Hamlin at 12/1
  • 10 fake on Brad Keselowski at 15/1
  • 5 fake dollars on Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 25/1
  • 5 fake dollars on Joey Logano at 50/1

I’m up a fake 160; I don’t need to win the entire season in the first month, though it sure would be nice. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the race Sunday, and insert random catchphrase here.

Kyle Busch 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Brad Keselowski 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1
Martin Truex Jr 25/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 40/1
Joey Logano 50/1
AJ Allmendinger 50/1
Marcos Ambrose 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Brendan Gaughan 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1