FORD 400 ODDS

I have no clue who’s going to win the Sprint Cup either.

So when in doubt, take logic out of the equation and do some math. In this case, math will bludgeon two birds with one stone. After all, I’m up 230 fake dollars after Carl Edwards won last week. And who doesn’t want to end the season with a win?

In this quite compelling race preview, one learned Homestead-Miami resembles Kansas and Michigan. Looking back at the history books (or websites since books are for old people), I learned some interesting facts. At Kansas, Jimmie Johnson finished second, Kevin Harvick third and Denny Hamlin 12th.

Hamlin won the first Michigan race, with Johnson sixth and Harvick 19th.

Harvick then won the next Michigan race, with Hamlin second and Johnson 12th.

On average, Hamlin fared the best in those three races, with Johnson second and Harvick third. So this would be the logical part of the column where I pick Hamlin with my fake house money. One problem. That stupid abacus.

 
If I thought Denny Hamlin had greater than a 33 percent chance of winning Sunday, I would put fake money on him. Hamlin doesn’t have a 33 percent chance or better of winning, especially after Mike Ford went Ric Flair in recent interviews/pro wrestling promos. Not to mention, coming back after a devastating event like last week isn’t a given.

So passing on Hamlin makes Johnson the next logical choice? No. Not at all. Johnson has never won at this track. He’s never had to prior to Sunday. And while this has nothing to do with an abacus, I have yet to come across someone who says this year’s No. 48 has the same mojo has the previous four years. Actually, counting reporters does require math; so, maybe I do need that abacus.

What I also need is someone to restrain Joey Logano’s dad. I think Kevin Harvick is going to win this weekend and take home the Chase crown. Really. Harvick led the points during the regular season, hasn’t done anything dramatic during the playoffs and has great record on this newest incarnation of Homestead and tracks similar to it. Plus, I haven’t seen anyone predict Harvick’s comeback. And when everyone in Vegas runs away from something, I think you run towards it. Unless it’s Carrot Top. He scares me

30 fake dollars on Kevin Harvick at 7/1: See above.

20 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 8/1:
The only dude who has won at this track three times drives a Ford. I am buying a Ford this weekend. Somewhere Mike Rowe is smiling in his Lee jeans.

Logic. Math. A hunch. Something will win out Sunday. Which one remains a mystery to me too. I do know what The Spread thinks. Calculate well, and insert random catchphrase here.
 
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Kevin Harvick 7/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Kyle Busch 9/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Jeff Gordon 18/1
Mark Martin 18/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Jamie McMurray 20/1
Joey Logano 28/1
Clint Bowyer 28/1
Martin Truex Jr 28/1
David Reutimann 35/1
Juan Montoya 35/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Field 15/1