Three points. Two driver. One Sprint Cup.

It all boils down to one race for Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. Up a fake 45 dollars after Stewart’s win last week, it’s also a make or break race in my quest to earn fake money for the year. Here’s the case for either or neither to win this weekend.

Stewart hates history

Nobody has won five Chase races. Nobody has won the Sprint Cup without winning a single race in the first 26. Stewart can destroy both of those trends with a win. Stewart has two wins at Homestead. Plus, he won at Chicagoland, which compares well with Homestead. Momentum matters. Stewart has it.

Edward likes history

Edwards also has two wins and is the defending race winner. Plus, no driver has led more laps than Edwards at Homestead.

Edwards is also consistently consistent. He’ll finish close to the lead, which means Stewart needs to win.

Finally, Roush teams run well at Homestead. Greg Biffle has two wins here. Matt Kenseth also owns a checkered flag from South Beach.

History dislikes both

Carl Edwards wasn’t in the Chase when he won last year. Ditto with Denny Hamlin the year before. The drivers who win this race don’t win The Chase. For two drivers who need to win, this isn’t good history. For drivers trying to make a stamp on 2012, it’s great plae.

With that, here are my picks.

20 fake dollars on Tony Stewart at 4/1
Had to.

20 fake dollars on Carl Edwards at 9/2
See Tony Stewart.

5 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 15/1
Biffle hasn’t won a race all year and doesn’t want to answer those questions this winter.  

5 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 30/1
Miller Man won in Kansas, which compares somewhat to Homestead. If this race is a springboard to 2012 and I think Keselowski is a legit title contender, it’s worth the fake money.

That’s called protecting a bet. Easy to do from a couch. Much harder to do from the driver’s seat on Sunday. Here’s what The Spread thinks.  Enjoy watching history on Sunday, and insert random catchphrase here.

Tony Stewart 4/1
Carl Edwards 9/2
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Kyle Busch 12/1
Kasey Kahne 15/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Kurt Busch 25/1
David Ragan 30/1
Brad Keselowski 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Martin Truex Jr 50/1
Jeff Burton 50/1
Mark Martin 50/1
Joey Logano 60/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Marcos Ambrose 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Jamie McMurray 75/1
David Reutimann 75/1
Brian Vickers 75/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1