We’re finally here.

The final race of the 2012 Sprint Cup schedule is upon us. Two drivers have a chance to take home the Sprint Cup. But there are four stories in play for this final race. As a result, there are four drivers getting my final fake dollars on the 2012 season.

The driver who needs to win:
20 fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 4/1

Johnson has the tenth best average finish among active drivers and has never won here. But Five Time has never had this large a deficit heading into the final race and competed against someone as aggressively driven to win. There’s zero margin for error

The driver who can’t afford to lose:
10 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 10/1

Has Denny Hamlin recovered from losing the 2010 Sprint Cup? Has Carl Edwards recovered from losing the 2011 Sprint Cup? I get Keselowski is young. But these chances don’t come around very often; just ask Roger Penske. It’s harder to get into a random wreck than when you’re leading with clean air.

The driver who doesn’t want to go winless:
10 fake dollars on Carl Edwards at 15/1

It’s been more than 60 races since Edwards has won. He has the highest average finish among active drivers here and two wins at the track. Edwards doesn’t want to answer questions about his 2012 inadequacy during the 2013 Media Tour.

The driver who turns 2012 into a 2013 run:
10 fake dollars on Kevin Harvick at 30/1

Harvick has success at Homestead, a secured ride for 2014 and nothing to lose. Why not?

At worst, I’m up a fake 122 dollars for the year. At best, I have my best season ever. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the race, and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Martin Truex Jr 10/1
Clint Bowyer 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Tony Stewart 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 18/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Joey Logano 35/1
Kurt Busch 60/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Paul Menard 200/1
Juan Montoya 300/1
Jeff Burton 300/1
Trevor Bayne 300/1
Regan Smith 300/1
Bobby Labonte 300/1
Jamie McMurray 300/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1


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