GOOD SAM CLUB 500 ODDS

 

Talladega is always unpredictable. Sunday’s Good Sam Club 500 might be even unpredictable by Talladega standards. Here’s why:

 NASCAR is changing the rules again:

The goal is get rid of those two-car drafts. Will it work? Who knows. Will it impact how team runs? Probably. How? Not sure anyone will know until Sunday.

Alignment issues:
If you have two-car draft, how does that align with the Chase? 

  • Kevin Harvick ran with Clint Bowyer, who has one foot out the door to Michael Waltrip Racing. Will that align well on a Chase track?
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. is still dealing with his streak. Jimmie Johnson needs a win. How will that align? 
  • Who runs with Kyle Busch?

Restrictor plate at Chase race:
Brad Keselowski won here. Jamie McMurray won here. Trevor Bayne and David Ragan won at Daytona.

Odds are you can take long odds and hope. Here’s hoping I improve on being up 105 fake dollars, even after the loss last week.

10 fake dollars on Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson at 12/1
Hendrick cars owned this race earlier in the year. I just don’t see the #88 breaking the streak

10 fake dollars on Kurt Busch at 12/1
Penske cars run well on fast tracks. 

10 fake dollars on Carl Edwards at 15/1
Isn’t he leading the points? 

5 fake dollars on Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski at 20/1
Aren’t these two title contenders?

Anything can happen at Talladega. That’s why my fake bets are hedged. Enjoy Sunday, see what The Spread thinks and insert random catchphrase here.

Kevin Harvick 10/1

Kyle Busch 12/1

Jimmie Johnson 12/1

Jeff Gordon 12/1

Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1

Tony Stewart 12/1

Kurt Busch 12/1

Carl Edwards 15/1

Brad Keselowski 20/1

Ryan Newman 20/1

Clint Bowyer 20/1

Kasey Kahne 20/1

Denny Hamlin 20/1

Matt Kenseth 20/1

David Ragan 20/1

Jamie McMurray 20/1

Greg Biffle 25/1

Joey Logano 25/1

Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1

Jeff Burton 30/1

Martin Truex Jr 30/1

Brian Vickers 30/1

Mark Martin 30/1

Paul Menard 30/1

David Reutimann 40/1

AJ Allmendinger 40/1

Regan Smith 40/1

Trevor Bayne 50/1

Marcos Ambrose 50/1

Bobby Labonte 60/1

David Gilliland 75/1

Field (Any Other Driver) 25/1