The worst things you can be is the favorite.
Martinsville is a track dominated by few. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have a combined 17 wins. I’m not picking any of them this week. Here’s why:
- Kyle Busch owns Bristol, he owned defeat two weeks ago.
- Last week, Jimmie Johnson owned Auto Club Speedway and never contended.
- No favorite has won the first five races of the 2012 Sprint Cup season.
If there is anything to learn from 2012, it’s that the pool of Chase contenders is smaller. But that pool has an awful lot of people wading at the same level. Why pick three when you can pick more than three?
I’m up a fake 415 dollars after Tony Stewart’s win (I guess we can call it that) at Auto Club Speedway. House money allows you to do some silly things, as these picks will soon prove.
10 fake dollars on Kevin Harvick at 10/1
Who is the defending race champion?
10 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 20/1
Who won at Bristol?
5 fake dollars on Clint Bowyer at 25/1
Who reinvigorated Michael Waltrip Racing?
5 fake dollars on Martin Truex Jr. at 40/1
Who needed reinvigorating at Michael Waltrip Racing?
5 fake dollars on Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth at 40/1
Who is leading the points? Who won the Daytona 500?
5 fake dollars on Joey Logano at 50/1
Who has no idea why he is making this fake wager?
5 fake dollars on Brian Vickers at 100/1
Who thinks this is the Mega Millions of fake NASCAR wagers?
I can bet fake money on eight people or three. When a favorite wins, I’ll gladly change my mind. Until then, here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the hot dogs, and insert random catchphrase here.
Denny Hamlin 4/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Kyle Busch 6/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Brad Keselowski 20/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Greg Biffle 40/1
Matt Kenseth 40/1
AJ Allmendinger 40/1
Joey Logano 50/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Kurt Busch 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
David Gilliland 300/1
Bobby Labonte 300/1
David Ragan 300/1
Regan Smith 300/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1