What would Kid Rock do?

Down a fake 210 dollars after last week’s debacle at Dover, I come to my former home state looking for some home cooking. But for reasons beyond me, the reasons to pick the favorites aren’t my favorite idea.

Carl Edwards is the only person to win twice at this track in the last five years. And while Edwards is a threat to win the 2011 Sprint Cup, he only has one win all year. When Kevin Harvick was in this spot last season, Jimmie Johnson was still the favorite. Harvick was barely 10/1. I don’t get it either.

Johnson has led the most laps of anyone at Michigan International Speedway in the last five years. And while I would like to take credit for Johnson’s downfall (having picked him almost every week) we’re getting to the point where he’s supposed to start getting it. Instead of getting better, Team Lowe’s seems to be stuck in neutral. I don’t get it either.

As a result, I am staying away from the favorites. And like Michigan’s favorite son,  I am going to enjoy nice weather and make picks that will look hastily constructed when someone else wins Sunday. Cue the cheesy video.

10 fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 10/1:
Is it me or does Kenseth have the best Roush Fenway team this year?

10 fake dollars on Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 10/1:

Oddsmakers say something when a dude who hasn’t won in 235,765,291 races has these kind of odds.

10 fake dollars on Denny Hamlin at 10/1:
A Toyota winning at Michigan? Kid Rock would punch me for this. He also might punch me for a free whopper.

10 fake dollars on Tony Stewart at 12/1:
It’s summer.

5 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 60/1:
Dude is from Michigan. Miller Light is his sponsor. Party on Garth.

5 fake dollars on AJ Allmendinger at 75/1:
If David Ragan wins, I quit.

 Let me be the first to congratulate David Ragan on his first Sprint Cup win this Sunday. Here’s what The Spread thinks, and insert random catchphrase here all summer long.

Carl Edwards 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
David Ragan 35/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Mark Martin 40/1
Joey Logano 40/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Martin Truex Jr 50/1
Jeff Burton 50/1
Brad Keselowski 60/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Marcos Ambrose 75/1
Paul Menard 75/1
AJ Allmendinger 75/1
David Reutimann 75/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1