HOW THE 2009 SEASON WOULD HAVE ENDED USING DIFFERENT POINT SYSTEMS
We all know that Jimmie Johnson won the 2009 championship under the current Chase format. Critics – like me – have made the case that every year the Chase is increasingly devoid of drama. So let’s take a look at some other point systems and see how else the 2009 season could have ended. The Jimmie Johnson Era is not inevitable. One of the scnarios produced a different champion, and some of the races were considerably closer than what we had.
1) If we used the Formula 1 system all year, with no Chase reset, Jimmie Johnson would have been the champion. Notice that non-Chasers Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth would have been in the top 12, replacing Ryan Newman and Brian Vickers, who wound up being the worst Chaser in history. We would have had a very tight race for second place among Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin. Only 34 drivers would have scored points. Makes me wonder. Could a system be devised in which those 34 automatically qualify for the first five races of 2010?
2) If we used only the full standings after 36 races, without any Chase reset, we would have seen four distinct groups of drivers. First off, Johnson, Gordon and Stewart would have been the class of the field, all within 100 points of each other. Behind them would have been the trio of Hamlin, Martin and Kurt Busch, all between 300-400 points back.
Then you would have seen a large group of eight drivers all 600-800 points behind Johnson. Notice Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth, despite missing the Chase, outscored Vickers and Kasey Kahne by enough points to knock them out of the top 12 in points. Vickers did so poorly in the final 10 races of the year that he would have finished 16th overall had there not been a Chase reset.
3) If we ran the Chase without any bonus points for wins, we would have seen an almost-identical final standings. The only differences would have been swaps for 6th and 7th and 10th and 11th. As we've seen in past years, Chase bonus points are almost entirely meaningless and not worth fighting for.
4) If you gave one point for every place (so a win equals 43 points, and a last-place finish equals one point), then we would have seen the standings here:
Basically, you can estimate by taking each driver's average finish. Then take 44 minus that number. So an average finish of 15 is like average points per race of 29. Multiply that number times 36 races and you get your total. Jeff Gordon would have been the champion in these standings. Again, Stewart and Johnson would have joined him as the best of this year's drivers.
(All Left Turns contributor Dale Watermill is the creator of the Watermill Score and the FLOPPER Award and edits the racing statistics blog 36 Races. E-mail him at 36races@gmail.com.)
Related links:
Drivers with momentum entering 2010
Replacing crew chief did not help Junior
Congratulations to Paul Menard, your 2009 FLOPPER Award winner
Winning in NASCAR is like counting cards
Chase bonus points are meaningless
Jimmie Johnson has most points at Chase tracks this season
The Watermill Score: How to win a Sprint Cup title
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I like the F1 system. I really like the idea of eliminating the incentive to race a wrecked car just for a couple of positions. Chad Knaus said he favors some kind of points-awarding modification to eliminate that.
I would perhaps change the point cut off to the top 12 or 15 or something, just because of the bigger fields in NASCAR.
Im with you. I don't neccesarly believe that it's rigged but I do believe NASCAR allowed Hendrick to get away with what they would have penalized anybody but the 3time consecutive champion. Because if they would have penalized him it would have looked bad for the past 3 years that he won. But, NASCAR is going down the tube in my opinion and it is time to start supporting the local tracks.
personally i almost believe that nascar is rigged it is starting to really go down the tubes and most likely i wont follow it ever again its time for someone than johnson to win
its time to say screw nascar and go to the local short tracks around the country and watch some real racing
BS not only do i dis agree were was the man sitting at the end of 26 races the system is started over with points added here and there for wins laps led etc, so do i thank that Johnson would of won maybe he wouldn't been in that 1st popsition he claimed more incentive for Tony and Jeff and Mark to keep him back the system is flawed i still don't believe u can put him in the same category as Earnhardt or Petty
So what you're saying is Jimime Johnson would have won under any formula almost. Give te man respect
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Johnson would have won, and will continue to win championships, under ANY point system, just as long as he continues to get away with running an illegal car like he has clearly been. Or do you honestly believe that the 48 car is THAT MUCH faster, week in and week out, on all different types of tracks, because Jimmie is so "talented"? Then please tell me why was he so mediocre in the IROC series, where the cars were all identically prepared and the DRIVER, (and luck), determined the outcome? Will you tell me that it's due to "team chemistry" and "hard work"? PLEASE! Do you not think the other teams are not working equally as hard? If you buy that truckload of crap, you aren't paying attention. The 48 team is running an ILLEGAL CAR. It's so much faster than everyone else that Jimmie is soft-pedaling it, and going to the front when he needs to. Homestead was a perfect example of this. I don't know if NASCAR is allowing them to do it or not, but they're winning by CHEATING, period. Hope all you JJ fans keep enjoying the show, but I am DONE watching the same non-race week in and week out. I'll be sitting out the 2010 season, and maybe longer. Hey NASCAR, see ya!