HOW MUCH DID HAMLIN’S BUMP HURT REUTIMANN’S CHASE CHANCES?

David Reutimann is still stewing over being bumped by Denny Hamlin at Pocono last week. Turns out, he has every right. Dale Watermill, the 36 Races publisher who has agreed to contribute to this site, sent me some numbers on Sunday that show just how devastating the bump was to Reutimann’s shot at making the Chase for the Cup. Watermill starts with the assumption made by Ricky Craven that Reutimann lost 60 points as a result. Going into the Pocono race, Reutimann had a 26 percent chance of making the Chase. He left Pocono with a 10 percent chance. Had Reutimann earned those 60 points, his Chase chances would have been 39 percent instead.

No bump = 39 percent
Bump = 10 percent

Look at the standings this way:

Said Watermill, "That shows you how big a swing one bump can have on a driver’s season.  Reutimann should be mad at Hamlin for doing that to him.  Hamlin destroyed his entire chance of making the Chase. From almost a half-chance of getting in, he is now a one-in-ten shot. What a disaster."

For more of Watermill’s mathematical insights, go to 36 Races.