KOBALT TOOLS 400 ODDS

Two races down. Thirty-four races to go.

It’s not The Undertaker at Wrestlemania, but I am undefeated in the 2012 Sprint Cup season, up a fake 210 dollars after Denny Hamlin’s win in Phoenix. And with so much success early in the season, it seems like a logical time to deviate from my early season strategy. Here’s why.

Vegas is fickle:

Anyone who has been there multiple times knows this for other reasons. But only four drivers have multiple wins at LVMS. Even though people love visiting the track, some drivers struggle mightily there.

Trends are developing:
Roush Fenway was locked in at tracks where they normally don’t excel. Now we hit their 1.5 mile sweet spot. Toyota’s new engine program and Darian Grubbs’ influence have settled down JGR. Hendrick has speed and bad luck.

Seeing how luck has a tendency to turn in Vegas, here are some picks for the sake of entertainment and entertainment alone.

Fifteen fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 7/1
Johnson has four wins at Vegas and the highest active finish among active drivers. These odds seem like a steal, which probably means people are stealing from me. At least it’s fake money.

Ten fake dollars on Carl Edwards at 10/1

Edwards won this race last year. He hasn’t won since. Stunning to me too. Roush cars excel at 1.5 mile tracks, of which this is the first run of the 2012 Sprint Cup schedule.

Ten fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 12/1

See Carl Edwards. Insert a more legitimate title contender. There, I typed it.

Ten fake dollars on Kasey Kahne at 10/1
If Denny Hamlin wins, I will cry. But Kahne has won at this track and does really well in Charlotte and Fontana. Everyone is raving about Hendrick Motorsports in 2012. It’s time for them to deliver.

Five fake dollars in Jeff Burton at 30/1
Four drivers have multiple wins at this track. One has 30/1 odds. I suspect you can connect the dots.

Streaks end. Streaks especially end in Las Vegas. At least Carrot Top is still performing to ease the pain. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the race, and insert random catchprhase here.

Tony Stewart 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kasey Kahne 10/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Brad Keselowski 20/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 30/1
Martin Truex Jr 30/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 40/1
Joey Logano 50/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Marcos Ambrose 75/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Brendan Gaughan 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1