KOBALT TOOLS 500 ODDS

Now I know how it feels like to be Brad Keselowski.

No, I didn’t get wrecked by Carl Edwards. But I did pick Denny Hamlin last week. That means I’m up 130 fake dollars for the year. That means there’s no way I can be down for the year. Take that, Vegas.

Like Keselowski, the final two weeks of my year will be leisurely. I can try to make more money or do something stupid for the sake of my own entertainment.  And since this is fake money, cue the Benny Hill music and cute kittens.

The reason I’m up for the year is simple. I stuck with a handful of drivers who seemed to keep winning every week. I also got lucky with Jamie McMurray at The Brickyard.

Still, my success might be part of the problem with NASCAR.  Every weekone driver wins. Forty-two lose. Even the worst teams in the NHL, NBA, MLB and the NFL win at least once, unless you’re the Detroit Lions.

Twelve drivers have won a race all year. That’s it. Four Chase drivers in the playoffs haven’t even won a race. Carl Edwards is fourth in the point standings. He flipped Keselowski. He hasn’t flipped in Victory Lane.

Let’s use Phoenix as an example of this discrepency. Jimmie Johnson is 7/2. I could bet all of my dollars on Johnson or pick sixteen different drivers and win the same amount of money. Where is my cash best played?

Such a discrepancy doesn’t exist in other sports. And if that alpha dog isn’t especially beloved or loathed, you get the apathy many say they see in racing. I hope this tight Chase race proves me wrong with the ratings this weekend. I’m not sure it will.

I am sure these picks might be the dumbest thing I’ve done all year, especially when Johnson wins the race by two laps. This is what you do with house money.

  • 5 fake dollars on Joey Logano at 20/1
  • 5 fake dollars on Carl Edwards at  20/1
  • 5 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 20/1
  • 4 fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 25/1
  • 4 fake dollars on Juan Pablo Montoya at 25/1
  • 4 fake dollars on Jeff Burton at 25/1
  • 4 fake dollars on Jamie McMurray at 30/1
  • 3 fake dollars on Ryan Newman at 35/1
  • 3 fake dollars on Kasey Kahne at 40/1
  • 3 fake dollars on Martin Truex Jr at 40/1
  • 3 fake dollars on Dale Earnhardt Jr at 60/1
  • 2 fake dollars on David Reutimann at 60/1
  • 2 fake dollars on AJ Allmendinger at 75/1
  • 1 fake dollar on Marcos Ambrose at 100/1
  • 1 fake dollar  on Brad Keselowski at 100/1
  • 1 fake dollar on Paul Menard at 100/1 

Here’s what The Spread thinks about the drivers who probably have a chance, and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Kyle Busch 4/1
Denny Hamlin 9/2
Tony Stewart 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Mark Martin 15/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Joey Logano 20/1
Carl Edwards 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1
Jeff Burton 25/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 60/1
David Reutimann 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 75/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Brad Keselowski 100/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1