AJ Allmendinger, what are we going to do with you?

I picked Allmendinger to make the Chase, then backed off that prediction when everyone jumped on the bandwagon. After a series of blown race winning predictions, I was done with picking Allmendinger to win.  Still, here’s how these recent events will impact the rest of the 2012 Sprint Cup schedule.

Silly Season On Steroids

Will Roger Penske fire Allmendinger? I don’t even think Penske knows. But that potential move coupled with the transition from Dodge to Ford opens up a host of drivers.

  • Trevor Bayne and David Ragan drove a Ford.
  • Sam Hornish Jr. is part of the Penske family.
  • Brian Vickers, Ryan Newman and maybe Joey Logano could be on the market.

Allmendinger’s status enhances the chance of a long shot winner.  I never thought I would type that last sentence.

Contender Conundrum

How does this impact Brad Keselowski’s title hopes? Miller Man has six wins in the last year. It’s logical to pick him over the next four months. But Juan Montoya was a one mal wolfpack against the Team Hendrick and couldn’t sustain enough success to dethrone Jimmie Johnson. This could be a big mark against a rising star.

I have no idea what will happen to Allmendinger. I do know I’m up a fake 550 dollars after Tony Stewart’s survival of Daytona. Now, fake picks for the sake of entertainment alone.
Eighteen fake dollars on Tony Stewart at 6/1
Whopper Man won at this track last year His average finish is among the best of all active drivers. And Stewart is racing for wins and wins alone at this point.  
Ten fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 12/1
You can’t name another driver who led more laps at short tracks than Keselowski. Plus, every resource Penske Racing has is going his way. This has to count for something???

Nine fake dollars on Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman at 12/1
Both need a win to ensure their Chase chances. Newman won here last year. Bowyer likes Loudon as well and has drive well at short tracks all year.

Four fake dollars on Brian Vickers at 75/1

This goes against every principle I have on fake wagers. But consider the following:

  • Vickers is racing for a contract.
  • He finished in the top five at Bristol.
  • He’s driving Mark Martin’s car, which has the best average finish at short tracks this year.
  • It’s four dollars.

Here’s what The Spread thinks; enjoy the race Sunday and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Martin Truex Jr 15/1
Ryan Newman 15/1
Clint Bowyer 15/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Greg Biffle 25/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Jeff Burton 50/1
Juan Montoya 75/1
Brian Vickers 75/1
Kurt Busch 75/1
Aric Almirola 75/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Bobby Labonte 300/1
David Ragan 300/1
David Gilliland 300/1
Regan Smith 300/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1