TUMS FAST RELIEF 500 ODDS

Entertainment purposes only blah blah blah.

Good, now that the disclaimer is out of the way, it’s time to look at Sunday’s race at Martinsville by the odds. There’s one main thing you need to know before hitting your ATM (to get food for the race, not to place any wagers unless you are in a state where such activity is legal):
 

Las Vegas is scared of Jimmie Johnson

If every driver had an equal chance of winning the race, Jimmie Johnson would have a 2.3 percent chance of winning. The second-best odds on the board are for Jeff Gordon. Assuming all things are even, the odds suggest Gordon has a 25 percent chance of winning. Assuming all things are even, Jimmie Johnson would have a 62.5 percent chance of winning. That’s the difference between the favorite and second-favorite. If you’re Robby Gordon, the difference is 62.5 percent to .006 percent.  It seems like Vegas is begging for you to bet on anyone but Jimmie Johnson. Hmmmm. Pardon me while I check my e-mail. Yeah… e-mail.

 Does Richard Childress have something up his sleeve?

Kevin Harvick hasn’t finished better than seventh at Martinsville and has two top-10s in his last 11 races. Clint Bowyer has one top 5 in four tries there. He has four top-5s all year. Both have better odds than four Chase drivers, Kyle Busch and Jeff Burton, who has the best numbers of any RCR driver in the field. Either Vegas knows something about Richard Childress Racing that none of us knows, or some loyal fan just bet his General Mills and Shell stock on these two, or there’s a random selection of odds for drivers who probably won’t win.

What in the blue hell happened to Sam Hornish Jr.?
 


I remember talk earlier this season that Hornish was finally ready to be a running buddy for Kurt Busch. Vegas has him tied for dead last on its board. For all the talk of Juan Pablo Montoya blossoming as a stock car driver, the internal “Get your poop together” clock on Hornish has to be ticking awfully loud right now. Next year’s annual new Penske driver is Brad Keselowski, who has at least won a race (along with the heart of Denny Hamlin.) Roger Penske is patient. He’s also results-oriented, and potential only matters when you do something with it. Clearly Vegas doesn’t think Hornish is doing anything at the paperclip this weekend.

VEGASINSIDER.COM OPENING ODDS           
JIMMIE JOHNSON    8    /    5       
JEFF GORDON    4    /    1       
DENNY HAMLIN    5    /    1           
TONY STEWART    8    /    1           
MARK MARTIN    8    /    1           
JUAN MONTOYA    10    /    1           
CARL EDWARDS    15    /    1           
RYAN NEWMAN    15    /    1           
KEVIN HARVICK    18    /    1           
CLINT BOWYER    20    /    1           
KYLE BUSCH    22    /    1           
KURT BUSCH    22    /    1           
DALE EARNHARDT JR    22    /    1           
GREG BIFFLE    22    /    1           
KASEY KAHNE    25    /    1       
JEFF BURTON    28    /    1       
BRIAN VICKERS    30    /    1       
MATT KENSETH    30    /    1       
CASEY MEARS    35    /    1       
DAVID REUTIMANN    50    /    1           
JOEY LOGANO    60    /    1           
JAMIE MCMURRAY    60    /    1           
MARTIN TRUEX JR    60    /    1           
MARCOS AMBROSE    80    /    1           
DAVID RAGAN    80    /    1           
AJ ALLMENDINGER    100    /    1           
DAVID STREMME    100    /    1           
REED SORENSON    125    /    1           
ELLIOTT SADLER    125    /    1           
SAM HORNISH JR    150    /    1           
ROBBY GORDON    150    /    1           
FIELD – ALL OTHERS    40    /    1