Nascar Odds: AAA 400

dover race

How on fire is Brad Keselowski?

It took a monster, a mile, and a behemoth to knock him from the favorite spot at the AAA 400. Here’s how the Nascar odds shakedown for your favorite driver.

The Fab Five:

Jimmie Johnson is the favorite at 4/1. Johnson owns this track with nine wins in just 25 career starts. Now that Kyle Busch has faded a bit at Bristol, this might be the biggest track/driver advantage in Nascar.

So why run with Keselowski first in a column where Johnson is so dominant? The Blue Deuce has one career win here. He’s barely in the top 10 among active drivers in terms of average finish. The past history is pedestrian; yet, Keselowski is 5/1. That’s the second favorite and the second lowest number of the entire 2014 Sprint Cup season.

Jeff Gordon has four wins at Dover and is understandably 6/1. Joey Logano, fresh of a new contract extension, is 8/1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the worst active finish among active drivers at Dover, just one career win at the track and is 15/1. These are the highest numbers for the No. 88 in months.

The Chasers:

Poor Carl Edwards. Only Johnson has a higher average finish among active drivers, yet Edwards is 40/1. Regardless of what fans think of the Edwards move to Joe Gibbs Racing next year, the lack of Edwards being a perceived threat at Dover is stunning.

Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger are also in the long shot category at 40/1 or worse. Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch are stuck in the middle at 25/1 and 30/1 respectively.

As for Kevin Harvick, the driver stuck between the Fab Five and everyone else is lumped together at 6/1.

Everyone Else: 

The Chip Ganassi Bandwagon is getting bigger. Kyle Larson, fresh of two strong finishes in two Chase races, finds himself at 18/1 in the eyes of oddsmakers. His teammate Jamie McMurray is 25/1. There’s also hope that Clint Bowyer will remember he’s Clint Bowyer. The 30/1 numbers are better than half nearly half the Chase field.

Then there’s Tony Stewart, who has three career wins and 11 top 5 finishes at the Monster Mile. The Nascar odds say 30/1. It feels like Stewart has no chance to compete this year, but Stewart is too good a driver not to win another race at some point.

Four Chase dreams end Sunday. Here’s how your favorite driver stacks up in the Nascar odds at the Monster Mile. Enjoy Sunday’s AAA 400, and insert a random catchphrase here.