Which is better: A dynasty or parity?
It is an age old question in sports, one NASCAR continues to deal with to this day. Judging by the odds for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500, the sport is in the midst of a dynasty, whether the sport is ready for it or not.
Even though Kevin Harvick’s streak is over, oddsmakers still believe he can win anywhere and anytime. Harvick is the 4/1 favorite Saturday night, in spite of his pedestrian efforts at Texas.
- In 24 career starts, Harvick has never won at Texas.
- Six active drivers have a better average finish at Texas than Harvick.
- Half of the time, Harvick finished outside the top-10 at Texas.
Just because Tom Brady hasn’t won at Phoenix doesn’t mean you bet against the Patriots. For now, Harvick is that kind of figure in NASCAR.
Jimmie Johnson was horrible at Martinsville. Oddsmakers don’t see a similar scenario at Texas, where Johnson has four wins in 23 career starts. Johnson is 6/1 with Kurt Busch, who has a stellar record at Texas.
Then there’s the pack of 10/1 drivers including Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski. Of the five, it’s Kenseth with the best average finish among active drivers at Texas. Of the five, Keselowski is the only one without a career win at Texas.
In spite of three career wins at Texas Motor Speedway, Carl Edwards is 15/1. In spite of a historically good start, Martin Truex Jr. is 18/1. In spite of not racing two weeks ago due to dehydration, Kyle Larson is 25/1.
From here, it’s a free fall. Ryan Newman is 45/1. Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle are 75/1. Danica Patrick, who is tied for 16th in points, is 300/1.
The parity in NASCAR is really a group of three. There is the driver who can do no wrong, the drivers with a chance to catch up and everyone else in the eyes of oddsmakers. Here’s how your favorite driver stacks up in the NASCAR odds for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500. Enjoy the first night race of the 2015 Spring Cup season, and insert a random catchphrase here.