NASCAR Odds: Food City 500

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Kyle Busch at whatever the number.

For years, racing at Bristol and predicting a winner was as easy as taking Kyle Busch and whatever odds were associated with his name. Next to Kevin Harvick and Phoenix, there isn’t a track more perfectly aligned with a driver than Kyle Busch at Bristol.

While it’s great to see Busch meeting the media and beginning his recovery from that nasty accident at Daytona, he will not compete in Sunday’s Food City 500. As a result, the odds at Bristol Motor Speedway look far different than what Sprint Cup fans would normally expect.

The Favorite:

It’s Kevin Harvick, but it’s close. Harvick is 5/1 and owns one win ins 28 career Bristol starts. Harvick has found himself in contention, finishing fifth or better about 1/3 of the time. It’s also Kevin Harvick; I can’t see any reason to not think he will be a factor Sunday.

The Contenders: 

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are both 6/1 and own wins at Bristol. Jimmie Johnson, like Harvick, has been good but not elite at Bristol. He’s still 7/1 with Kurt Busch, who many NASCAR fans forget has five wins at Bristol just like his brother.

The only other driver in single digits is Matt Kenseth at 8/1. Kenseth owns three Bristol wins. Almost as intriguing, 40% of the time he has finished fifth or better.

The Names You May Not Expect:

Drivers at Bristol tend to excel or flounder at Bristol. Even though Kyle Busch has five wins in just 20 career starts, he is fourth among active drivers in terms of average finish at Bristol. The leaders, and their numbers, might floor the average NASCAR fan.

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has the highest average finish among active drivers at Bristol. That’s not a typo. Stenhouse is 200/1.
  • Kyle Larson only has two career starts at Bristol but is second in terms of average finish. Larson is 20/1.
  • Greg Biffle is third in this category and can be had at 100/1.

Here’s how your favorite driver stands out in the NASCAR odds for Sunday’s Food City 500. Enjoy the bowl at Bristol, even if Kyle Busch isn’t there, and insert a random catchphrase here.