Nascar Odds: 400


Sometimes change is necessary. Sometimes change makes no sense.

The odds for Sunday’s 400 race at Pocono are out. There’s a change at the top, though I’m not sure if it makes any sense when you look at the data.

The Blue Deuce Is On Top:

Brad Keselowski is the favorite at 4/1. That’s not a typo. Keselowski is certainly a contender for the 2014 Sprint Cup. But being the favorite at Pocono is an interesting choice.

Keselowski has a win at the track. He has four finishes of 10th or better in his nine career starts. These numbers are good. But Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin all have higher average finishes at Pocono than Keselowski.

There’s also this guy named Jimmie Johnson who has the best average finish among active drivers at Pocono. Seventeen times the No. 48 has finished tenth or better. Only seven times has Johnson finished outside of the top 10.

All things considered, I don’t see why Johnson isn’t the driver at 4/1, although at 5/1 it’s not like Johnson is being disrespected.

Hendrick Or Bust:

Jeff Gordon, who has the most points of everyone by the way, is 7/1 and coming off a win at Indi. Kasey Kahne, who has been coming on as of late, it 12/1. Dale Earnhardt Jr., who doesn’t have any real history at Pocono is 8/1. In all, Hendrick drivers have 12 wins at the track. It could easily be 13 on Sunday.

Long But Good Odds:

Two drivers find themselves in different stages of flux. Denny Hamlin, docked a bunch of points on a story nobody seems to be talking about, is at 10/1. This seems high. Carl Edwards, who left Roush Fenway Racing, is 60/1. This seems crazy.

There’s another chasm among familiar faces. Tony Stewart, who has yet to heat up, is 12/1 even though there’s no indication that spark will ever arrive. Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer have both done well at Pocono and had some recent flashes; they are 25/1 and 40/1 respectively.

Pocono is known for a tricky triangle; Sunday’s race could prove to be tricky for those trying to pick a winner. Here’s how your favorite driver stacks up for Sunday’s 400.