NASCAR Odds: Good Sam 500


The 2016 Sprint Cup season continues its west coast swing in Phoenix with the Good Sam 500. Unlike Las Vegas, which only hosts one race a year, Sprint Cup teams head back to Phoenix during the third round of the Chase. Oddsmakers will have a close look at what happens on the track Sunday.

The Favorite:

Kevin Harvick is 3/1. Harvick is a machine at Phoenix, with seven wins in 26 career starts at Phoenix International Raceway. Harvick also has 11 career top-5 finishes at PIR. To not see him contending would be a surprise Sunday.

Three other drivers are under 10/1. Jimmie Johnson is 6/1. Defending Sprint Cup champion Kyle Busch is 7/1, and Joey Logano is 8/1. Of the group, Johnson has the best average finish among all active drivers. In 25 career starts, Johnson has 15 career top-5 finishes and four wins.

The Contenders:

There are a cluster of drives in the 10/1-12/1 range. Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Carl Edwards are all 10/1. Hamlin, Edwards and Keselowski are third, fourth and fifth in terms of average finish, though Keselowski doesn’t have a win at Phoenix yet.

Martin Truex Jr., Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kurt Busch are 12/1. All but Truex Jr. have wins at Phoenix

Everyone Else:

From this point, the odds fall off the cliff. Austin Dillon is 20/1. Then it’s Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne at 28/1. This week, names like Mears and Bayne are 500/1, and some drivers (Josh Wise, Cole Whitt etc.) are 1000/1. Fans of upsets probably want to wait another week.

If you have to pick a long shot, Greg Biffle is 100/1 and has the highest average finish among active drivers of anyone  at Phoenix. Aric Almirola is 300/1. I suspect if this race were to run 300 times, he would find a way to win once, though it most likely won’t be Sunday.

Here’s how your favorite driver stacks up in the NASCAR odds for Sunday’s Good Sam 500. Enjoy NASCAR’s version of a West Coast swing, and insert a random catchphrase here.