Now I know what it’s like to be Paul Menard. Well, pre-2010 Paul Menard.

Four race predictions. Four losses. Even though this is only for fun, it’s not fun losing all the time. So with no race this week, I’ve decided to try my hat at making the odds. Here are some NASCAR-related prop bets I would like to see at my favorite Vegas sports book. For those wondering, prop bets aren’t as much about who wins or loses, rather how they win or lose.

Odds of Brad Keselowski punching Carl Edwards in the face at a NASCAR track in 2010: 1/353,420,652,894,369,891,345,176,290,834

This has to happen. Somewhere Brian France McMahon was cackling with glee as Edwards took his well-sponsored steel chair and cracked the upstart over the head with at 190 miles an hour. All Edwards needed was an NWO shirt and Slick by his side.

Keselowski didn’t back down with Denny Hamlin. He’s not backing down here. I may only win a penny on the dollar. But my penny earned will purchase a really old gumball at Target.

Odds of a Toyota Prius being used as a pace car: 100/1
Somewhere Jack Roush isn’t frowning.


Odds of Dale Earnhardt Jr. winning a race in 2010: 3/1
The good news is Captain Amp has shown flashes of real skill. The bad news is one or two dumb mistakes cost you a win.

I see it this way. Where is Dale Jr. most effective? Talladega runs twice. Daytona once. Atlanta again. Short tracks like Bristol. Maybe Richmond.
It’s fair to think NASCAR’s most popular driver will get the benefit of the doubt. Couple that with Hendrick resources and I say plunk coin on the No. 88.

Odds of Michael Waltrip’s hair impacting your life: Off the board.
It’s mesmerizing.  Admit it.

Odds of a driver winning his first Sprint Cup race in 2010: 25/1
There aren’t many drivers who haven’t won on tour. Scott Speed, Marcos Ambrose, David Ragan, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger and Sam Hornish Jr. are the only ones who have guaranteed rides all season, until they get fired.

We know Talladega could be a mess and open up chances for a rookie. We also know it can rain, which worked wonders for Joey Logano and David Reutimann.  I just don’t see it happening this year, but you could persuade me otherwise.

Odds of a driver announcing a team change before July 4th: 8/1

Kevin Harvick and Kasey Kahne are both putting together great seasons after frustrating 2009 runs. Both have access to sponsors. Both look good on camera. Both will have multiple offers in they want them.

I say one of them leaves, but will word leak before Independence Day? I seem to think not, but if you have seen my picks, you know I’ve been wrong before.

Odds Paul Menard will make the Chase: No bleeping way.

If the season ended today, Menard would be chasing. While I’m happy to see Captain Sideburns succeed after being our runaway 2009 Flopper, he would ruin this website by qualifying for the Chase. That can’t happen. If only I had Carl Edwards’ cell number to arrange some payback.

Enjoy spending time with your family this weekend, and insert random catchphrase here.