NUMBERS SAY CUP IS STEWART'S TO LOSE
With the Chase field locked, it is time to put away our Chase qualifying tables and break out our championship percentage probability tables. With 10 races to go, Tony Stewart leads all drivers with a 30 percent chance of winning the Cup.
I kicked things off with a simulated model of 14,950 potential outcomes in the next 10 races. (Yes, this is what I do for fun.) Adjust for the current points standings (5,000 through 5,040) and we get percentages for who will end the Chase with the most points.
Right now we see Stewart at the top of the list with strong competition from four guys in particular: Hendrick drivers Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin, and Gibbs driver Denny Hamlin.
Stewart makes the top of the list because 4,497 combinations out of the 14,950 total end up with him winning the title. Again, these numbers are based on performance of each driver so far this year. Past performance predicts future success.
Hamlin has scored, by far, the most points in the last 12 races of the season. If he repeats that performance in the final 10, he could win the title. Unless Juan Pablo Montoya has a new trick up his sleeve, his "Chase racing" strategy will not translate to any shot at winning the title.
(All Left Turns contributor Dale Watermill is the creator of the Watermill Score and edits the racing statistics blog 36 Races. E-mail him at 36races@gmail.com.)
Related links:
The Watermill Score: How to win a Sprint Cup title
Replacing crew chiefs has not helped Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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Writer Dale Watermill responds:
Thanks for your question. Your concern appears more about Montoya rather than the math I'm using, so I'll just tackle that issue directly.
Fortunately we don't even need complicated math to address Montoya's situation. Consider some common sense examples:
First: Pick out Montoya's best performances this year, and you'll see in all cases somebody else scored more points:
In Montoya's two best races he scored 340 points. But Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne scored 350 in the same two races.
In Montoya's three best races he scored 490. But Hamlin (520) and Mark Martin (496) both scored more points in those same races.
The story continues no matter what set of races you consider... In his best 10 races he scored 1498 points. But Tony Stewart had 1523 points in the same ten. And all of these guys have bonus points that Montoya does not.
If the past repeats itself, he is never going to be #1.
Second: If you take any other driver, and pick out their best 10 races, they always score more than 1550 points. In fact, Montoya has the *worst* set of "personal best 10 races" of any chase driver. Dead last. By a big amount too.
Third: Notice he only has 2 top fives all year. 17 other drivers have more top 5s this season. SEVENTEEN! This is more proof that he isn't driving championship caliber races so far in 2009. Even if he doubles that amount in the next 10 races, he'll have 4 top fives all year. Name one champion who had 4 tops fives in a season.
To conclude, Montoya has not shown any ability to ever score the most points, *EVEN* when you try to skew the data towards him by only picking his personal best performances. Additionally, his zero bonus points hurts the benefit of the doubt in close situations.
Montoya's own performance this year has never indicated an ability to be the #1 guy. But if he starts winning some races during the chase then his percentage will go up.
Tune in each week to see how he does. His chances can only go up from here.
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Go jpm shut everyones mouth.