Don’t call it a comeback.

Fine words from L.L. Cool J. A finer way to explain what to expect in this year’s Chase. I’ll allow you to ponder while watching one of the best performances is “MTV Unplugged” history.

History shows if you’re not fourth place or better after Kansas, you have no chance of winning the title, at least since NASCAR switched the points system. And since NASCAR has no plans to randomly change the point structure during the Chase this year, this weekend is do or die for many of the sport’s top stars. And if any of those drivers need added motivation, here’s L.L listening to a motivational speech from Al Pacino in “Any Given Sunday.” 

Watch for language by the way, and don’t get mad if your boss busts you for watching this.

It’s also crunch time for me. Down a fake 30 dollars after Jimmie Johnson’s win at Dover, I am trying to remain focused on what should happen while respecting the desperation of racing’s elite. And while I don’t have L.L.’s fine investigative skills on NCIS Los Angeles, I do have enough to feel confident in this week’s picks, especially since I showed the multi-media skills of L.L. in four paragraphs…wow.


30 fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 7/2:

The new King has led the most laps of any active driver at Kansas. He dominated last week. Johnson has 19 wins in 62 Chase races. That’s a 31 percent clip. I call that great math so long as he stays at 7/2 the rest of this season.

10 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 10/1:
The 1.5 mile tracks are where Roush Fenway drivers have made their living over the last five years. Biffle has led the second-most laps at Kansas of any driver not wearing Lowe’s gear. If Ford is going to be the least bit relevant in this year’s Chase, now is the time. I say Biffle is the driver. That said, there’s a distinct chance this money is getting tossed down the toilet. But, I like to cover my bases. Speaking of which.

10 fake dollars on Tony Stewart at 12/1:

Whopper man has two wins at Kansas in the last five years. Had he had an extra gallon of fuel, Stewart would be competing for the title. If there’s any chance Stewart rebounds, it has to be now. Plus, I’ve bet on Stewart far too often this year and just can’t stop doing it. It’s my addiction. That and nachos. Also wings, waffles and comfortable socks.

Anyway, here’s what The Spread thinks. Enjoy the race Sunday, and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Greg Biffle 10/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Clint Bowyer 15/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
David Reutimann 25/1
Jamie McMurray 25/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 35/1
Joey Logano 35/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Mark Martin 75/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 75/1
Brad Keselowski 100/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
David Ragan 100/1