Quicken Loans 400 Odds

Michigan

“Don’t call it a comeback.”

LL Cool J’s words from more than 20 year ago can make Nascar fans feel a few different ways. We all can feel really old that “Mama Said Knock You Out” is 24 years old. Seriously, I know.

We can also use those words to predict what might happen in Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400.

They’re Not Dead Yet:

Monty Python’s classic line applies to two of Nascar’s biggest names. On paper, Pocono was another stinker for Kasey Kahne and Tony Stewart. In practice, it may have been a stepping stone to second half surge. Kahne was an impact player until his car made a huge impact into the wall. With one win and 35 percent of his starts ending up fifth or better at Michigan, Kahne is 12/1 and running Hendrick gear that was won four straight Sprint Cup races.

Tony Stewart is also 12/1. The number seems high, but Stewart led until a pit road speeding penalty. He has one win at Michigan. More than 60 percent of the time he finishes 10th or better.  Plus, it’s summer. Not even Olaf from “Frozen” likes summer more than Tony Stewart.

Maybe Mama Knocked Out Jack Roush:

Carl Edwards has the highest average finishing position among active drivers at Michigan. In 15 or 19 starts, he’s finished 10th or better. Two of those finishes were wins. Greg Biffle has four wins at Michigan. In nearly half his starts, Biffle has finished fifth or better. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has done nothing memorable of note at Michigan.

So while it makes perfect sense for Stenhouse Jr. to be 100/1, it doesn’t make sense for him to proportionately have the best numbers of anyone on the team.

  • Stenhouse Jr. is at least at 100/1 with Austin Dillon, who would make the Chase if it started Sunday.
  • Edwards is 15/1. He has the same odds as Kurt Busch who he leads by 158 points in the standings.
  • Greg Biffle is 20/1. That’s 14th among drivers running Sunday.

Jack Roush is a Michigan man. Apparently oddsmakers view the rest of field like Ohio State come Sunday.

Oops. We Buried The Lead:

Did you know Jimmie Johnson has never won at Michigan? He’s still the favorite at 7/1.

LL Cool J may not watch Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400, but someone will knock out 400 other competitors for his own Pure Michigan moment. Here’s how your favorite driver stacks up for Sunday’s race.