“Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.”

Mike Tyson’s quote rings through my skull like a shot to the eye socket.  Ryan Newman (I can’t believe he won either) has me down a fake $250 in my quest to bet every single 2010 Sprint Cup race.

In a bid to avoid getting financially knocked out, I find solace that my Kasey Kahne prop bet worked out. I also find joy knowing that I will never bet real money on NASCAR when/if my pregnant wife allows me near a casino. For the sake of entertainment (whether laughing with or at me,) here are my picks for this week’s Samsung 500 at Texas Motor Speedway:

$15 on Jeff Gordon at 8/1:
I trust Hendrick with the new spoiler setup. I don’t love Jimmie Johnson’s odds, worry the Kasey Kahne/Mark Martin situation could have a Conan/Leno vibe and don’t trust Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Gordon’s odds are blah at best. But Gordon could have won twice in the last three races. Plus, he’s getting really ticked about not winning and expressing that tickiness (I know it’s not a word, but follow me, people.) Gordon also has three poles at this track over the last five years, which could be an advantage if this turns into a fuel duel or strategy race. Pound for pound, Gordon feels like a favorite.  

$10 on Matt Kenseth at 12/1: Kenseth has led the most laps at this track over the last five years. He has the highest average finish. He’s second in points. I think this is great value. But I thought Paul Menard was great value last week, and that didn’t pan out so well.
$10 on Carl Edwards at 15/1: I hate the Edwards vibe. But the dude has won here three times in five years. Captain Frisbee loves these kind of tracks. I think he’s more Tyson than Peter McNeeley this week.

$10 on Jeff Burton at 18/1: Burton has two wins at Texas. He drives a Chevy. If Childress figures out the new setup, Burton seems least likely to get all Glass Joe on me.

$5 on Clint Bowyer at 20/1: I have $5 leftover and no desire to throw it on Scott Speed.

Everyone has a plan. I just hope stalking Buster Douglass for a few days will help me come Sunday. Here are the odds from Ding ding, and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Kurt Busch 9/1
Mark Martin 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Joey Logano 30/1
David Reutimann 50/1
Martin Truex Jr 50/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Brad Keselowski 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1