I need a dart. Or a Magic 8 Ball. Or an octopus that picks race winners.

There isn’t a harder place to pick a winner than Texas. It’s great to type this after Kevin Harvick hosed me over again leaving me down a fake $110 going into my least favorite place to pick a winner.

It would seem obvious to pick Denny Hamlin. After all, he swept Texas last year and has a great average finishing position. Heck, he was the only driver to finish fifth or better in both Texas races. Problem is Hamlin’s best races have been at shorter tracks, which Texas isn’t. I want to see a Joe Gibbs Engine run at 200 miles per hour all evening without falling apart.

And while I don’t think Kevin Harvick is falling apart, he and I (and any Dale Jr. fan) now have the same mortal enemy. Kevin Harvick is banned from my picks column….until Talladega.

There are only three multiple winners at Texas and thirteen different drivers who can say they’ve won at this track. It’s a crapshoot, with the emphasis on crap. As in, these picks are for entertainment purposes only. And sometimes, losing is funny.  Unless you’re one of the people I’m picking to win Saturday night.

20 fake dollars on Jimmie Johnson at 6/1
From the “No Surprise Department,” Johnson has progressively gotten faster as the season has continued. The finishing results have improved. He has to win at some point right?

20 fake dollars on Carl Edwards at 6/1

Edwards is the only driver to win here three times. His average finishing position is terrible, but I’m not picking to place or show…I want winners.

10 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 16/1
Biffle had the best car at Texas last year until his car broke, which means he probably didn’t have the best car when you really think about it. Matt Kenseth has a better track record here. But I can’t remember the last time Kenseth won a race. Neither can Kenseth for that matter. I flipped a coin and will go with Biffle, which means I will openly cry when Kenseth wins Saturday night.

The only thing I know for sure is that I have food and beverage supplies ready for Saturday night.  After all, who needs an octopus when you have David Ragan? Here’s what The Spread thinks, and insert random catchphrase here.

Denny Hamlin 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Kevin Harvick 9/1
Tony Stewart 9/1
Kyle Busch 9/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Matt Kenseth 16/1
Greg Biffle 16/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Montoya 30/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
David Reutimann 40/1
Brian Vickers 40/1
Field 25/1

More stories by this author:
Goody's Fast Pain Relief 500
Auto Club 400 Odds
Jeff Byrd 500 Odds