SHOWTIME SOUTHERN 500 ODDS

Order. We all want it. We never really get it.

The more order, the more trends develop. The more trends develop, the more we can anticipate, feel easy and stress less. Crews seek order in their cars. Golfers seek order in their swing. Baseball pitcher seek order in their delivery. You’re lucky to harnass order occasion. You never fully corral it.

Same can be said for making race picks. After Joe Gibbs Racing smacked me in the mouth, I’m down sixty fake dollars. I’ll take the loss though, because I think I’ve coralled something to think about for the rest of 2011.

Check out the race winners from this season. Joe Gibbs Racing excelled on short tracks. Roush Fenway Racing led the pack on 1.5 mile tracks. Chevy has done best on larger tracks that require more pure power. These numbers trend through the field. Nearly 1/4 of the way through the 2011 Sprint Cup season, these trends are great to see.

Then you see the Lady in Black. Darlington. There’s nothing about this track that applies to my theory above. It’s the beauty of the race. But it’s a beast to try and predict. Alas, for the sake of your entertainment.

20 fake dollars on Denny Hamlin at 6/1 :
Darlington isn’t a short track. But Hamlin excels here. And maybe, just maybe, the funk is over after his finish last week. Plus, engine worries can’t be that big an issue on a 1.33 mile track. Right?? Maybe?? Uh oh.

15 fake dollars on Jeff Gordon at 8/1:
Only one driver has finished fifth or better at every race in Darlington the last five years. No, it’s not Scott Speed. Gordon loves this track. He’s won in 2011. Why not?

10 fake dollars on Matt Kenseth at 20/1:
RFR has been king of the 1.5 mile tracks in 2011. Kenseth hosed me over once this year. But, you can’t find a driver not named Gordon or Hamlin who has a better Darlington track record in the last five years.

5 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 20/1
:
I only have five dollars and don’t trust Brad Keselowski.

Order is all I want. Order is what Darlington doesn’t deliver. In a strange way, I’m OK with that, at least for one race. Here’s what The Spread thinks. Now insert random catchprhase here.

Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Denny Hamlin 7/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Mark Martin 25/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Brian Vickers 40/1
David Reutimann 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 75/1
Paul Menard 75/1
David Ragan 75/1
Brad Keselowski 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1

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