STP 400 ODDS

Can we finally agree Greg Biffle is for real?

Up a fake 485 dollars after Greg Biffle’s win last week, I waiting to see where the points leader would stand in the eyes of oddsmakers going into one of his favorite tracks.

What I saw stunned me.


On one hand, I can agree Jimmie Johnson being a favorite. Nobody has led more laps at Kansas than Old Five Time, and Johnson has found himself close to two wins.

Then there’s Whopper Man. Tony Stewart’s run is historic. His record at Kansas is a solid A-, two wins but not in the top five among active drivers in terms of average finish. Yes, Stewart finds himself a favorite with Johnson.

Then there’s Biffle. The points leader who has shown himself a contender in half the races this season is at a track where he has the best average finish among active drivers. And while Biffle’s odds are shrinking, what we see on the track and what we think will happen on the track remain vastly different.  With that in mind, my fake picks for the sake of your entertainment.

15 fake dollars on Greg Biffle at 8/1
I wrote a whole column about the guy. About time our points leader got some respect!! Biffle loves this track; his team is clicking on all cylinders. I’m floored Biffle isn’t the favorite to win Sunday.

10 fake dollars on Jeff Gordon at 10/1
Gordon has the highest average finishing position among active drivers over the last five years who doesn’t have a win. Add a series of solid runs and Hendrick’s record at Kansas, this seems like a good investment. This means Gordon has no chance of winning.

10 fake dollars on Brad Keselowski at 12/1

The Blue Deuce won here last year, runs well at similar tracks and has had a few bad runs recently. I smell rebound.

8 fake dollars on Clint Bowyer at 30/1
Over the last five years, Bowyer has the eighth best average finish among active drivers, just no wins.

7 fake dollars on Martin Truex Jr.

I have no logic for this pick, other than Michael Waltrip Racing has to win a race soon.

Here’s what The Spread thinks about your favorite driver. Enjoy the race Sunday, and insert random catchphrase here.

Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1
Martin Truex Jr 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Mark Martin 35/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
AJ Allmendinger 50/1
Joey Logano 60/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Kurt Busch 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Jeff Burton 60/1
Marcos Ambrose 60/1
Regan Smith 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1