I’D SAY THAT ABOUT SUMS UP THE 2009 CHASE

No, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 'Championship Contenders' Press Conference will not have very many contenders. One of them, Jimmie Johnson, has a 97 percent probability of winning the title. I redacted the address in order to prevent public bedlam and anarchy. ...

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UPDATED CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITY TABLE: JOHNSON HAS 97 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINNING

After his win in Phoenix on Sunday, Jimmie Johnson's lead is now 108 points over Mark Martin. We almost don't even need a probability table for this week, but let's go ahead and check it out anyway. (Can you tell I’m a Martin guy?)1) First off, everybody from third place on down is eliminated. That includes you, Jeff Gordon.2) Martin needs to outscore Johnson by 109 points or more in the last race at Homestead in order to win the title. Obviously, that's a tough task, basically requiring t ...

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JOHNSON INCREASES CHASE LEAD IN PHOENIX

Let us all now come to grips with what is about to happen. Jimmie Johnson, with his victory at Phoenix on Sunday, is destined to win his fourth straight Sprint Cup title next weekend. We can bemoan this fact. Or we can celebrate it. I choose to celebrate it. Johnson and Chad Knaus are outstanding competitors, and we are lucky to witness their excellence every weekend, even if said excellence is so vanilla in flavor. Johnson rebounded from his disastrous wreck last week in Texas to dominate the C ...

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UPDATED CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITY TABLE: MARTIN AND GORDON STILL HAVE A SHOT

Jimmie Johnson’s crash in Texas shook up the Chase and the championship picture is suddenly more competitive than it was one week ago. Remember, probability is based upon past performance this season predicting future success. My notes with two races to go: 1) Anytime you are trying to pass BOTH David Reutimann and Sam Hornish Jr. on the outside of the same turn on lap 3 of any race – that’s just a boneheaded move. When you have a big points leads in the 34th race of the ye ...

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CRASH PUTS FIRST DENT IN JOHNSON’S QUEST FOR FOURTH STRAIGHT TITLE

Have you ever noticed that trouble strikes when you least expect it? For Chase leader Jimmie Johnson, that was the case Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. With a 184-point advantage over teammate Mark Martin, Johnson simply needed to finish 10th or better in the final three races in order to claim his fourth straight title. After making it through the chaos in the closing laps at Talladega, Johnson was unable to make it three full laps at the Dickies 500, where he was the favorite to win. Exiti ...

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