BANK OF AMERICA 500 ODDS

My picks stink.As the worst losing streak of my careers continues, let’s not worry about fake picks that haven’t been entertaining (at least not for me) and get Bert Convy on the biggest story in motorsports: Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the concussion crisis in NASCAR. Win: Dale Earnhardt Jr.So the #88 won’t win the Sprint Cup. He wasn’t going to anyway. I remember interviewing him a few years back and was amazed at how well he was able to take information, reflect and grow ...

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GOOD SAM 500 ODDS

It looks so easy on paper. Had I wagered fake money on Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin all season, I would have won nearly 50% of the 2012 Sprint Cup races.At Daytona, this would have seemed out of place. Now, I can’t image doing anything else. What’s amazing here are the odds for Talladega. It’s normally a crap-shoot. The “Big One” knocks out half the field. But consider the following: Who won this race earlier in 2012…Brad Keselowski.Who ...

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AAA 400 ODDS

So the Chase seems to be working.Six drivers are within sixteen points of the lead. Each of the contenders have tracks where they excel and tracks where they struggle. Now we enter one of racing’s most physical tracks, a Monster Mile with monster consequences.Before we get to the fake picks, a quick game of Win, Lose or Draw. Win: Furniture Row RacingKurt Busch could win races next season with this team. His name recognition could yield sponsorship opportunities that could create a seco ...

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SYLVANIA 300 ODDS

It’s amazing what one week can do to the 2012 Sprint Cup season.Jeff Gordon went from sleeper contender to no chance after a mechanical problem. Brad Keselowski went from cute story to points leader. And Denny Hamlin went from calm and confident to must win in the span of a week. Oddsmakers certainly reacted. There is a massive chasm now between contender and afterthought. In three years of writing this column, I’ve never see the divide that exists this week. From 25/1 to 60/1? Th ...

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GEICO 400 ODDS

Tony Stewart ruined my favorite column of the year.Every year, I would write an article using past data to explain why drivers wouldn’t win the Chase. Tony Stewart blew a hole through half of those theories, making this year’s column moot. With that in mind, here are three things to think about when trying to predict a 2012 Sprint Cup Champion. Running Buddies:I still remember Tony Stewart passing Jeff Burton late in a race to pick up an extra point. Turns out that point won Whopp ...

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FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 ODDS

So the final race for the Chase has some major dud potential. Silly Season has been anything but. Here’s quick looks at winners and losers, Bert Convy style. Win: Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.Hamlin gets Roush Fenway insight at the types of tracks where Joe Gibbs Racing has struggled the most. It’s a big missing link.Lose: Trevor Bayne and Brian VickersHow can neither of these guys get a full season commitment?Draw: Joe Gibbs RacingMatt Kenseth helps now. But they spent millions de ...

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IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE ODDS

So what did I miss on vacation?Teammates yelling at other teammates. Chase contenders booting crew chiefs. Brad Keselowski going Sting on Rick Hendrick’s NWO. And now we add a newly repaved Bristol race to the mix…at night. All the people I would normally want to take look vulnerable. Consider this.Kyle Busch needs a win. He has been as low as 3/1 at Bristol. But engine issues, bad luck and poor decisions about race cautions have Busch feeling a bit cursed.Two Hendrick engines we ...

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FINGER LAKES 355 ODDS

Hendrick Motorsports will probably take home the 2012 Sprint Cup, just not with the driver you think.Jimmie Johnson has five titles; Dale Earnhardt Jr. has consistency and confidence; Kasey Kahne is a popular sleeper pick.  But have you seen what Jeff Gordon is doing? Seven races ago, Gordon had 336 points. That amounted to 21st in the standings through 14 races.In the last seven races, Gordon has 275 points, plus a win to get him into Chase contention. And three of the final Chase track ...

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PENNSYLVANIA 400 ODDS

The dog days of summer are here.The 2012 Sprint Cup schedule will return to tracks where it ran earlier this year. None of the tracks we see between now and the Chase will actually be a Chase race. Coupled with a points race that is mellow, at best, and it would be easy to change the channel for the next few weeks. Here are three reasons to stay tuned: The quest to replace AJ Allmendinger:Joey Logano, Brian Vickers, Trevor Bayne and Sam Hornish Jr. fight for the right to be Brad Keselowksi&rs ...

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BRICKYARD 400 ODDS

What is the Brickyard 400?OK, it’s a race. I get it. But this was supposed to be the second biggest race on the schedule when first created. Does it feel like the second biggest race of the 2012 Sprint Cup schedule?Like racing, Indi seems to be changing. Consider the following questions: We are the champions?Eight drivers have won at Indi, then won the season championship. The last two winners didn’t even make the Chase.Can someone make a pass? The Indi 500 is  perfect for pa ...

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