BUSCH, VICKERS HAVE EQUAL SHOT AT BREAKING INTO CHASE

Following the Saturday night race at Bristol, the Sprint Cup Series saw another shakeup in the points standings. With just two races left until the 12-driver Chase field is finalized, let’s take a look at the updated probability table.Because of the strength of the competitors in the 12th through 14th spots, I am updating the 12th place points target to 3,172.  That is up from 3,149 last week, and the 3,120 I had been using the last few weeks.  This will cause some previous " ...

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WIN HELPS VICKERS SURGE IN CHASE QUALIFYING PROBABILITIES

Brian Vickers’ win at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday meant a big shakeup in the points standings, as well as the probabilities for each driver's Chase qualifying percentage.Some notes of interest:1) First off, because of the strong performances of the overall driving group, I am moving up the 12th place target level from 3,120 points to 3,149 points.2) This 3,120 to 3,149 points upgrade, along with his bad race on Sunday, is why Juan Pablo Montoya's qualifying probability went d ...

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UPDATED CHASE QUALIFYING PROBABILITIES

With the Watkins Glen race in the record books, it's time to update the Chase qualifying probability table. Some notes of interest:1.) Kyle Busch doubled his chances of making the Chase with his fourth-place finish at Watkins Glen on Monday.2.) David Reutimann is basically out at this point. He was so close a couple of weeks ago, but the two Monday races have taken him out of contention.3.) If Jeff Burton leads the most laps and wins the next four races, he might barely make the Chase by 10 poin ...

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