WILL HAMLIN’S INJURY AFFECT HIS 2010 SEASON?

The big story right now is Denny Hamlin's injury. We are seeing a lot of discussion out there wondering whether his 2010 start will be just as good as his 2009 ending. Some of the PR from the Joe Gibbs camp is that this will be no problem.Let's compare some recent examples of NASCAR injuries. In 2009, Carl Edwards broke his right foot in September.  In the following twelve races after the injury (the last twelve of 2009), he had three Top Tens, and a total of ZERO Top Fives. His average ...

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TOYOTA DRIVERS HELPED THE STOCK MARKET MOST IN 2009

Late in 2008 I did some analysis showing which drivers over their careers helped the stock market most. Who do you root for if you want the stock market to go up? And which winners hit your wallet the hardest?I have resurrected the data for the 2009 season. I considered the first trading day after a race, and compared the performance of the S&P 500 to the winning driver and manufacturer of the most recent race. Here is what I found: Kyle Busch's four wins produced a total stock market gai ...

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ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THE CHASE

As we have discussed before, the simplicity of the Watermill Score is that it can summarize what it takes to succeed in the NASCAR points system with just four basic inputs: Wins Top 10s Lead lap finishes Races at the finish A simple count of each of these gives you the Watermill Score of zero to four, and it is almost 100 percent correlated with the real points system. We have seen it work over the course of an entire season, but what happens if we look at it just using the ...

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WHAT IS THE WATERMILL SCORE?

Editor's note: Earlier this year All Left Turns introduced the Watermill Score, the four-pronged strategy that Sprint Cup teams should follow in order to win a title. In a follow-up story, we showed how winning a NASCAR title is like counting cards. This third post elaborates on the first two, covering why the Watermill Score is important and how teams can use it to affect race strategy.I. Introducing the Watermill ScoreThere is a startlingly basic relationship that almost fully defines the trad ...

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UPDATED CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITY TABLE: JOHNSON HAS 97 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINNING

After his win in Phoenix on Sunday, Jimmie Johnson's lead is now 108 points over Mark Martin. We almost don't even need a probability table for this week, but let's go ahead and check it out anyway. (Can you tell I’m a Martin guy?)1) First off, everybody from third place on down is eliminated. That includes you, Jeff Gordon.2) Martin needs to outscore Johnson by 109 points or more in the last race at Homestead in order to win the title. Obviously, that's a tough task, basically requiring t ...

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