ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THE CHASE

As we have discussed before, the simplicity of the Watermill Score is that it can summarize what it takes to succeed in the NASCAR points system with just four basic inputs: Wins Top 10s Lead lap finishes Races at the finish A simple count of each of these gives you the Watermill Score of zero to four, and it is almost 100 percent correlated with the real points system. We have seen it work over the course of an entire season, but what happens if we look at it just using the ...

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REPLACING CREW CHIEF HAS NOT IMPROVED EARNHARDT’S PERFORMANCE

Has changing crew chiefs made a difference for Dale Earnhardt Jr.?Tony Eury Jr. lasted 12 races this season with Earnhardt.  Since then, we’ve run another 12 races, making this the perfect time to take a snapshot of replacement Lance McGrew’s performance.  Have the driver's results improved at all?First, consider his performance all year in the table below. Remember that Watermills, as I determined earlier this week, are the best way to determine the probability of winni ...

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