TOYOTA DRIVERS HELPED THE STOCK MARKET MOST IN 2009

Late in 2008 I did some analysis showing which drivers over their careers helped the stock market most. Who do you root for if you want the stock market to go up? And which winners hit your wallet the hardest?
I have resurrected the data for the 2009 season. I considered the first trading day after a race, and compared the performance of the S&P 500 to the winning driver and manufacturer of the most recent race. Here is what I found:
Kyle Busch's four wins produced a total stock market gain of 5.7 percent.
Matt Kenseth's two wins to start the season caused an 8 percent loss in the stock market. Despite not doing any other damage on the track the rest of the year, his two wins in February did enough damage to everybody's wallets for the whole year. If you look at my list from 2008, the -8 percent Kenseth displayed this past year is enough to put him in the bottom echelon of all-time performers.
Maybe people don't like Jimmie Johnson that much, but his seven wins turned into a positive 4 percent gain in the stock market, good for all of us.
And despite Mark Martin's -6.7 percent contribution in 2009, his career totals still put him in the top 10 of all-time positive contributors.
Now let's just consider the per-race average stock market performance for wins. So Matt Kenseth's negative 8 percent over 2 wins is a negative 4 percent average on this table.
Here we see a lot of single-race winners near the top: David Reutimann, Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray all had a single win, but were able to parlay those wins into positive market performances.
On the flip side, Brad Keselowski and Brian Vickers had individual wins that really hurt the market the next day.
Notice Tony Stewart, in a new role as owner-driver, had a very quiet 0.1% contribution per win. Not rocking the boat at all.
Finally, the most intriguing result of all: Toyota was the only manufacturer that produced a positive stock market effect all year. Maybe foreign automakers aren't that bad after all?
(All Left Turns contributor Dale Watermill is the creator of the Watermill Score and the FLOPPER Award and edits the racing statistics blog 36 Races. E-mail him at 36races@gmail.com.)
Related links:
Another way to look at the Chase
What is the Watermill Score?
Visualizing Sprint Cup points accumulation
Montoya and Stewart have more in common than huge egos
How the 2009 season would have ended using different point systems
Drivers with momentum entering 2010
Replacing crew chief did not help Junior
Congratulations to Paul Menard, your 2009 FLOPPER Award winner
Winning in NASCAR is like counting cards
Chase bonus points are meaningless
Jimmie Johnson has most points at Chase tracks this season
The Watermill Score: How to win a Sprint Cup title
1 Comments

![]() | LOL RACE PICS: FOR THE SON OF MONTOYA
//MORE
|
![]() | RACING FOR THE LOVE OF THE SPORT
//MORE
|
![]() | DRIVERS FIND CROSSOVER SUCCESS ON THE POP CHARTS
//MORE
|
![]() | NIGHT RACING VERSUS DAY RACING
//MORE
|
![]() | JOHNSON CRASHES AT BRISTOL
//MORE
|
|

| Who is your pick to with the AC500? 1346 views | 0 replies in the last hour | replies | Are you a big Kasey Kahne fan? 1548 views | 0 replies in the last hour | replies | Day One: Torn Up Race Cars 1529 views | 0 replies in the last hour | replies | 2010 NASCAR Season 1778 views | 0 replies in the last hour | replies |







Stumble
Twitter




This is another intersting use of statistics. Obviously, Matt Kenseth's wins occured at the worst possible time this year since the market tanked to its lowest level two weeks after his wins, but the all-time stats indicate he wins while everyone else is losing in the market. Perhaps we can "buy on the dips" right after he wins.
As retail investors return to the market in 2010, we may see drivers contribute more heavily to stock market gains. This isn't indicitive of their effect on the market, but rather a return of "Mutual Fund Mondays" which came back in November and December.
Since November, we've seen every Monday close higher than the Friday close. Mutual funds traditionally accumulate all their changes from their clients during the week, then step in to buy on Mondays. If the trend continues in 1Q and 2Q, we could see a lot of drivers contributing (spuriously) to Monday gains in the market.