1) Johnson was the big winner in every department. He won the race, took the points lead and gained 18 percentage points here, moving from a 24 percent chance of winning the title to 42 percent. That almost doubles his next competitor.
2) Fortunately for Mark Martin, his fourth-place finish kept him within striking distance of the points lead, and his 22 percent title chance is the same as last week. He hasn’t really lost any ground versus the competition as a whole.
3) Tony Stewart, despite working his tail off for fifth place, took a bigger hit, losing 6 percentage points.
4) The biggest loser of the group was Denny Hamlin, who went from a 6 percent chance to virtually zero after his crash on a restart.
5) Six drivers have been virtually eliminated after four Chase races. That’s a big shakeup.
6) The top four Hendrick-powered cars now have a combined 94 percent chance of winning the title.
7) Despite the TV announcers calling this one of the closest Chases ever, I see the data showing a big divide between who has a shot and who does not.
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