UPDATED CHASE QUALIFYING PROBABILITIES

With the Watkins Glen race in the record books, it’s time to update the Chase qualifying probability table.

Some notes of interest:

1.) Kyle Busch doubled his chances of making the Chase with his fourth-place finish at Watkins Glen on Monday.

2.) David Reutimann is basically out at this point. He was so close a couple of weeks ago, but the two Monday races have taken him out of contention.

3.) If Jeff Burton leads the most laps and wins the next four races, he might barely make the Chase by 10 points. Look for him to be officially eliminated next week when he doesn’t win.

4.) Juan Pablo Montoya upgraded himself from 99 percent to 100 percent. His "Chase racing" strategy has paid off. But is he a threat to win the title? No.

5.) Mark Martin and Ryan Newman had bad days on Monday, and that reduced their chances a little bit. Still, both of them have very good shots of getting in. They don’t have much to worry about.

6.) Good runs by Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer helped each of them a little, but not enough to make a big difference. They need to score top fives the rest of the way to get in.

7.) There is a 54 percent chance that the current top 12 will stay intact. This is the first time that number has been above 50 percent since I’ve been monitoring it.

OK, let’s look at the Chase qualifying probability table with four races to go:


 
(All Left Turns contributor Dale Watermill is the editor of 36 Races. E-mail him at 36races@gmail.com.)