There are 43 people who will race Sunday at Homestead. In reality, only four matter. When looking at the NASCAR odds on who will become the 2015 Sprint Cup champion, NASCAR oddsmakers have a clear sense of who will take him the Sprint Cup title at Homestead on Sunday.
The Favorite: It’s Kevin Harvick at 3/2 according to Vegas Insider. This is nearly twice as low as any other competitor. There’s three reasons why that makes sense.
- Harvick became the first driver to win a Sprint Cup under this new format next year. He knows how to work this system.
- Harvick has the second best average finish among active drivers at Homestead. Only twice in his career has Harvick finished outside the top-10 at Homestead.
- Harvick has led more laps than any other Sprint Cup driver this year.
Harvick has been the favorite all year. Let’s see if he can wear the hat one final time at Homestead.
Everyone Else: The numbers bunch together for the other three names competing for a Sprint Cup title.
- Kyle Busch is 11/4.
- Martin Truex Jr. is 3/1.
- Jeff Gordon is 7/2.
Of the three, it’s Martin Truex Jr. with the best average finish. Only three times in 10 career starts has Truex Jr. finished worse than tenth. While Truex Jr. hasn’t won at Homestead, he has finished fifth or better three times.
Busch and Gordon are more curious cases. Gordon has a win and is sixth in terms of average finish. But he also has the longest odds and hasn’t seen a boost in numbers in spite of the win three weeks ago.
As for Busch, Homestead might be his worst track. In ten career Sprint Cup starts, he has just one top-5 and three career top-10 finishes. There are two dozen Sprint Cup drivers with a better average career finish. Granted, Busch hasn’t raced with any importance at Homestead. Of the four, it seems like Busch might need the most magic on Sunday.
Harvick, Busch, Truex Jr. Gordon. One of these four names will make racing history on Sunday. Enjoy getting geared up for the 2015 Sprint Cup finale, and insert a random catchphrase here.